01 / 05 · 核心判断
需求有支撑，收购消息不足以升级判断
ServiceNow · 20260911研究观点 · 非投资建议
单位与术语说明
PRICE MAP / 估值与技术参照
价格与估值参照
DOWNSIDE合同放缓、收购整合和股权激励费用，可能挤压现金并推高债务。 →
假设情景扣股权激励费用的股东现金代理，非公司自由现金流或正式现金流折现；固定股数，不另加净现金。
模型口径与限制
扣股权激励费用的股东现金代理×倍数；以GAAP每股收益和严口径自由现金流作交叉核验，非正式现金流折现或目标价；本轮尝试Yahoo实时页面仅返回价格及空增长表；TwelveData提取表仍把Jun2026列当前季度，FY2026/FY2027 每股收益4.12/5.03、各40位、范围3.64–4.33/4.21–5.32，仅为滞后快照且与搜索摘要数值不一致，不列为当前一致预期。[21]；公司FY2026订阅收入指引15.760–15.780十亿美元；作者仅以中点15.770加自设专业服务0.430得到总收入计算基数16.200，再按情景推演FY2027。[1]；股东现金代理=收入×（（经营现金流−资本开支）占收入比例−股权激励费用占收入），保守地将股权激励费用视为经济成本；此口径不加回收购交易现金费用。股数1.05十亿股取Q3指引作作者固定未来假设，不预测未来真实稀释。[1]；用25/32/40倍资本化下一年现金，不另加净现金，以免已计利息的股东现金与企业价值混用；未建立完整债务偿还日程，故只作情景筛选；作者25/32/40倍及FY2027增长12%/18%/24%、严格自由现金流率28%/32%/36%、股权激励费用率16%/14%/12%维持。9月9日CRM/帮助台发言没有可核验新增现金与并购有机桥，不能支持上调估值。[18][19]；保守股东现金代理扣股权激励费用经济成本、不加回并购现金费用；并非GAAP现金流或正式现金流折现，可能低估部分增长性投入价值，但防止把股权激励费用当免费融资；基准104.86美元较09-10收盘-20.06%。管理层CRM 年度合同价值与beta扩张给出经营验证方向，而不是立即改变现金输入；三种情景不因股价回落自动变为可靠买点。[19][22]；情景非保证目标价；技术观察不保证支撑。
按价格等比例定位；灰线仅为价格刻度，蓝色标记为所示日期收盘价；均不表示买卖信号。观察区间不是保证支撑或压力；点击标记查看原报告口径与来源。
PRICE RATING / 本报告新增分析 · 20260911
五档价格评级
卖出$131.17
扣SBC现金代理内·非完整DCF · 置信度：中低2026-09-10 收盘 · 美元/股 · 非实时扣SBC现金代理内·非完整DCF：2026-09-10收盘131.17美元/股，四个边界68.16/83.89/104.86/165.29的五档内仅机械映射“卖出”。仅在所述经营与现金前提持续成立时适用，不是完整投资评级或交易指令。
强力买入0 < P ≤ 68.16条件性价格档位
买入68.16 < P ≤ 83.89条件性价格档位
持有83.89 < P ≤ 104.86条件性价格档位
卖出104.86 < P ≤ 165.29报告价格所在档
强力卖出P > 165.29条件性价格档位
低价档以前提不变为条件；保守情景不是损失地板，基本面恶化须停用原档并重估。旧条件检查：Q2cRPO恒汇率21.5%不支持连续两季<18%；Q3仍为指引未实际结算，收入前移与收购须拆分。；按监控每季/滚动十二月口径，四季严格FCF0.578+2.000+1.529+0.473=4.580，收入14.732，FCF率31.09%已不满足<28%，无需用单季低现金偷换滚动；Q2毛利70.68%亦未低于70%。趋势恶化仍需警惕。；六月净债0.810<3，未在新材料核实短债滚动受阻；Sweep已报道交割但对价未披露，不能判新增负债金额或声称完整收购桥已核验。
P 为正数股价（美元/股）；边界归入左侧较低价格档。颜色对应文字评级，不代表涨跌预测；分币仅为计算显示精度，不是估值精度。
H1回购超过严格FCF及扣SBC代理，资本配置预警已出现；TTM经营联合阈值未触发，两者不可混用。
为什么这样分档？查看计算、依据与失效条件
估值与判断依据
FY2027收入由FY26订阅中点15.770加作者服务0.430得到16.200基座，增长12/18/24%；严格FCF率28/32/36%再减SBC16/14/12%，除1.05十亿股×25/32/40倍。采用基准104.86与乐观183.66分币锚及0.65/0.80/1.00/0.90原因子，不随CRM/帮助台beta叙事抬高现金率。
- H1严格FCF2.002与扣SBC0.803、净债0.810继续约束；四季毛利77.28→76.63→75.07→70.68下行但尚非连续低于70%。Goldman新CRM ACV超过2十亿美元及中端50万机会不是新增GAAP收入或付费客户。Sweep为有公司回应的二级交叉核验，对价未知；新取EPS表滞后，不称当前一致预期。（新报告证据路径：/financial_quality, /quarter_notes/5, /fundamentals/7, /fundamentals/9, /fundamentals/11, /valuation/basis/0） 原报告依据 →
- FY2027收入由FY26订阅中点15.770加作者服务0.430得到16.200基座，增长12/18/24%；严格FCF率28/32/36%再减SBC16/14/12%，除1.05十亿股×25/32/40倍。采用基准104.86与乐观183.66分币锚及0.65/0.80/1.00/0.90原因子，不随CRM/帮助台beta叙事抬高现金率。 原报告依据 →
- 旧条件逐项复核：Q2cRPO恒汇率21.5%不支持连续两季<18%；Q3仍为指引未实际结算，收入前移与收购须拆分。；按监控每季/滚动十二月口径，四季严格FCF0.578+2.000+1.529+0.473=4.580，收入14.732，FCF率31.09%已不满足<28%，无需用单季低现金偷换滚动；Q2毛利70.68%亦未低于70%。趋势恶化仍需警惕。；六月净债0.810<3，未在新材料核实短债滚动受阻；Sweep已报道交割但对价未披露，不能判新增负债金额或声称完整收购桥已核验。 原报告依据 →
估值窗口：FY2027作者现金情景；以下一年现金倍数资本化，未建立完整逐年DCF或债务偿还日程，不是股价兑现期限。
失效后先重估，不是越跌越买
- 连续两季cRPO固定汇率增长低于18%，或Q3订阅低于公司3.975十亿美元指引下沿；拆分汇率和并购后全面重评，不因价格下降自动升级。 本次核验[not_triggered_on_available_periods]：Q2cRPO恒汇率21.5%不支持连续两季<18%；Q3仍为指引未实际结算，收入前移与收购须拆分。
- 滚动严格FCF率低于28%且SBC率高于16%，或毛利率持续低于70%；重建现金率、股数与所有档位。 本次核验[not_triggered_ttm_basis]：按监控每季/滚动十二月口径，四季严格FCF0.578+2.000+1.529+0.473=4.580，收入14.732，FCF率31.09%已不满足<28%，无需用单季低现金偷换滚动；Q2毛利70.68%亦未低于70%。趋势恶化仍需警惕。
- 净债超过3十亿美元、短债滚动受阻，或收购披露显示现金/留任稀释显著超出模型；重做资本结构及全档评级。 本次核验[not_triggered_debt_unresolved_acquisition]：六月净债0.810<3，未在新材料核实短债滚动受阻；Sweep已报道交割但对价未披露，不能判新增负债金额或声称完整收购桥已核验。 另按半年窗口复核回购持续高于可分配现金分支；H1已见回购超现金代理，不等于Q2仍回购或TTM联合经营阈值已触发。
买入档仅在基本面及模型前提持续成立时适用；跌价若来自盈利、偿债或经营能力恶化，应暂停使用原区间。卖出档不是做空指令。
四个边界如何计算
- 强力买入档上限：68.16 = 104.86 × 0.65。2026-09-11逐界复核：作者在FY2027扣SBC现金基准值上要求35%安全边际：现金率恢复、SBC降至14%和固定股数均待兑现，并购整合与短债约束不能由订阅续约率替代。此为强力买入档上界，不是保守情景51.84美元的损失下限。 新证据不足以改变该主观因子；低价适用性仍以本次失效检查为条件。 查看估值依据
data/batches/20260911/005_ServiceNow.json#/valuation/rows/1/3 - 买入档上限：83.89 = 104.86 × 0.8。2026-09-11逐界复核：作者要求基准值20%安全边际才进入买入档上界；嵌入工作流的转换成本可支持现金持续性，但有机cRPO、并购支出和实际稀释仍不清楚，不能按未扣SBC的FCF支付全价。 新证据不足以改变该主观因子；低价适用性仍以本次失效检查为条件。 查看估值依据
data/batches/20260911/005_ServiceNow.json#/valuation/rows/1/3 - 持有档上限：104.86 = 104.86 × 1.0。2026-09-11逐界复核：作者以基准值原价作为持有档上界，安全边际为0%；32倍下一年股东现金已经依赖现金转换改善，不再给予额外AI溢价。超过此线需要比基准更好的经营兑现。 新证据不足以改变该主观因子；低价适用性仍以本次失效检查为条件。 查看估值依据
data/batches/20260911/005_ServiceNow.json#/valuation/rows/1/3 - 卖出档上限：165.29 = 183.66 × 0.9。2026-09-11逐界复核：作者对乐观值再留10%折让作为卖出档上界；20.088十亿美元收入、36%严格FCF率、12% SBC率及40倍须共同成立，不允许在尚未披露的Sweep协同上继续加价。越过此线为模型内强力卖出，不是交易指令。 新证据不足以改变该主观因子；低价适用性仍以本次失效检查为条件。 查看估值依据
data/batches/20260911/005_ServiceNow.json#/valuation/rows/2/3
门槛由原估值锚与本轮作者设定的安全边际/溢价因子得出；不是公司指引、分析师共识或回测优化结果。它不改写原报告的综合研究判断，也不承诺在固定日期到价。
完整模型限制
SBC为经济成本，扣SBC现金代理非公司adjusted FCF、GAAP EPS或完整DCF；不加回实际并购现金费用，不另加净现金。固定1.05十亿股和服务收入/未来现金率为作者假设，未来债务本金、Sweep对价及整合ROIC/AI独立利润尚不完整。历史TTM现金率与H1/单季不得混为一谈；当前共识时间未可靠确认，产品合同和beta机会不是已赚现金。 这是2026-09-11作者复核的条件价格筛选，不是原研究status/Review的改写或批准。因子为沿用的主观安全边际/边界纪律，非实证概率、回测优化、公司指引或按当前价格反推。四个边界对应五个价格档，分币只是显示精度；经营与偿债前提失效时停用低价买入资格并重估。卖出不代表做空；无仓位建议、交易指令、保证底部或损失上限。 2026H1回购2.225十亿美元超过严格FCF2.002及扣SBC代理0.803，资本配置预警已出现；Q2无现金回购。该分支本版明确按半年窗口观察持续性，不能以H1替换TTM联合经营测试。
Overview
五页看懂 · 结论、依据与边界
02 / 05 · 业务表现
二季度增长仍强，但现金改善有限
ServiceNow · 20260911研究观点 · 非投资建议
03 / 05 · 估值
维持现金假设，不随新闻改估值
美元 · 每股 · 价格锚：2026-09-10（非实时）
灰色：本报告情景；蓝色：所示日期收盘价。条形从零起算，粗段表示区间；不是目标价或买卖信号。
ServiceNow · 20260911研究观点 · 非投资建议
04 / 05 · 主要风险
关注代理产品是否增加收入，也增加成本
ServiceNow · 20260911研究观点 · 非投资建议
05 / 05 · 后续观察
会议已发生，合同增长仍待现金验证
ServiceNow · 20260911研究观点 · 非投资建议
1 / 5
五项决策摘要
基本面
合同增长仍强，现金转化尚未跟上
估值
保留现金情景，基准仍低于现价
技术面
短期与长期均线方向分化，非价值结论
筹码 / 持仓结构
回购抵稀释，不足以证明当日资金方向
催化剂 / 近期大事
9月9日会议已发生；下一步看beta付费与Q3
基本面
业务与竞争格局
向企业及公共部门销售云端工作流平台，以IT服务、运营管理、客户与员工流程、安全风险治理为核心，再通过AI、数据与自动化扩容；2026Q2订阅收入3.877十亿美元、专业服务及其他0.110十亿美元，订阅是主要现金发动机。[1][6]
更多依据与口径（3项）
竞争者包括Microsoft、Oracle、SAP、Salesforce及Workday，另有AI点方案、自建软件和系统集成商。嵌入流程与治理的转换成本是护城河判断，不代表没有替代；2023–2025的98%续约指标不计普通缩单，不能冒充净收入留存率。[6]
09-09Goldman会议CEO把CMDB上下文、跨系统整合、权限及可审计工作流作为对抗自建AI的差异化；同时披露CRM 年度合同价值已超过2十亿美元、同比翻倍，并称面向50万中端客户机会的AI帮助台在beta。以上是管理层陈述/潜在市场，不把企业数量当真实客户、不把年度合同价值当当季GAAP收入。[19]
竞争判断：模型能力普及既降低点工具开发门槛，也提升治理整合需求。NOW需要用有机未来12个月剩余履约义务、实际消费续费及单位交付成本证明平台收费能力，管理层宣称自建成本更高不等于独立成本研究。[19]
历史财务
| 期间 | 收入 | 营业利润 | 自由现金流 | 口径 / 备注 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023（自然年） | 8.971十亿美元 [6] | GAAP营业利润 0.762十亿美元，利润率 8.49% [6] | 经营现金流−购置物业设备 2.704十亿美元；经营现金流 3.398、资本开支 0.694 [6] | 股权激励费用 1.604十亿美元；自由现金流再扣股权激励费用的保守股东现金代理 1.100十亿美元，非公司口径 [6] 年报追溯五拆一后的GAAP稀释每股收益 1.68美元，不再除以5。[6] |
| FY2024（自然年） | 10.984十亿美元 [6] | GAAP营业利润 1.364十亿美元，利润率 12.42% [6] | 经营现金流−购置物业设备 3.415十亿美元；经营现金流 4.267、资本开支 0.852 [6] | 股权激励费用 1.746十亿美元；自由现金流再扣股权激励费用的保守股东现金代理 1.669十亿美元，非公司口径 [6] 年报追溯五拆一后的GAAP稀释每股收益 1.37美元，不再除以5。[6] |
| FY2025（自然年） | 13.278十亿美元 [6] | GAAP营业利润 1.824十亿美元，利润率 13.74% [6] | 经营现金流−购置物业设备 4.576十亿美元；经营现金流 5.444、资本开支 0.868 [6] | 股权激励费用 1.955十亿美元；自由现金流再扣股权激励费用的保守股东现金代理 2.621十亿美元，非公司口径 [6] 年报追溯五拆一后的GAAP稀释每股收益 1.67美元，不再除以5。[6] |
过去四季 + 下一季公司指引
| 期间 | 收入 | 收入同比 | GAAP 毛利率 | 毛利率同比变化（百分点） | GAAP每股收益 | 调整后 每股收益 | 数据性质 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q3（截至2025-09-30） | 3.407十亿美元 [4] | 21.81%（由原始金额计算）[4] | GAAP总毛利率 77.28% [4] | -1.84个百分点 [4] | 0.480美元，拆后稀释 [4] | 0.964美元，原公告口径、拆后稀释 [4] | 事实 |
| 2025Q4（截至2025-12-31） | 3.568十亿美元 [3] | 20.66%（由原始金额计算）[3] | GAAP总毛利率 76.63% [3] | -2.04个百分点 [3] | 0.380美元，拆后稀释 [3] | 0.920美元，原公告口径、拆后稀释 [3] | 事实 |
| 2026Q1（截至2026-03-31） | 3.770十亿美元 [2] | 22.09%（由原始金额计算）[2] | GAAP总毛利率 75.07% [2] | -3.85个百分点 [2] | 0.450美元，拆后稀释 [2] | 0.970美元，原公告口径、拆后稀释 [2] | 事实 |
| 2026Q2（截至2026-06-30） | 3.987十亿美元 [1] | 24.01%（由原始金额计算）[1] | GAAP总毛利率 70.68% [1] | -6.80个百分点 [1] | 0.290美元，拆后稀释 [1] | 0.900美元，原公告口径、拆后稀释 [1] | 事实 |
| 2026Q3（截至2026-09-30）公司指引 | 总收入未指引；订阅收入 3.975–3.980十亿美元 [1] | 订阅收入约20.5%，固定汇率20%；不是总收入增长 [1] | 总毛利率未指引；GAAP营业利润率8%，非GAAP31%不是毛利率 [1] | 不适用：未提供季度毛利率指引 | 未提供 [1] | 未提供；稀释股数指引1.05十亿股 [1] | GUIDANCE |
四季按自然年，所有每股收益为美元/拆后稀释股。2025Q3原公告GAAP2.40、非GAAP4.82均除以5得0.480与0.964；Q4和2026两季已为拆后口径，不再次除5。[4][5]
更多依据与口径（6项）
拆股2025-12-17生效，公告预期12-18拆后交易；Q2 10-Q/业绩表追溯重列确认生效。拆股不改变经济价值。[1][5]
2026Q2公告追溯排除战略投资损益并重列比较期非GAAP每股收益；表中2025Q3/Q4采用各自原公告非GAAP定义，仅统一拆股，未伪称完全统一利润口径；不据此拼接可比非GAAP 过去12个月。[1][3][4]
同比和总毛利率按财报所列百万美元金额计算，因此与公司以0.5个百分点显示的摘要略有差异。总毛利率不是订阅毛利率。[1][3][4]
公司自由现金流会加回并购相关现金费用；本文历史主表及估值先用经营现金流−物业设备购置，另列股权激励费用代理。两者都不是GAAP定义指标。[6]
严格现金桥（经营现金流−物业设备购置，十亿美元）：2025Q3 0.813−0.235＝0.578，Q4 2.238−0.238＝2.000。[4][3] 2026Q1 1.670−0.141＝1.529，Q2 0.587−0.114＝0.473；与公司加回并购现金后的调整自由现金流分开。[2][1]
09-11重取Q2 SEC原公告与10-Q，季度实际仍截至06-30；9月9日会议不是新季度财报，未把CRM 年度合同价值或帮助台beta写进历史收入或Q3财务指引。[17][18][19]
经营质量与资本配置
需求桥：Q2总收入3.987十亿美元，其中订阅3.877、服务0.110；未来12个月剩余履约义务13.20十亿美元、剩余履约义务29.0十亿美元，658名客户年度合同价值超过0.005十亿美元、同比约23%。约46% 剩余履约义务预期未来12个月确认，其余多数在13–36个月，不是当期收入或无条件现金。[1][7]
更多依据与口径（12项）
增长质量桥：Q2净新增年度合同价值及本地部署比例超预期，但联邦需求令部分收入由Q3提前至Q2，不能据24.5%增速外推。AI 年度合同价值超过1十亿美元是年度合同价值，不是单季GAAP收入；缺独立AI利润率与新增/替代拆分。[1]
利润桥：Q2毛利2.818十亿美元、营业利润0.162十亿美元，非GAAP营业利润1.173十亿美元。股权激励费用0.655十亿美元与并购摊销等构成主要差距；税项含0.051十亿美元递延税估值备抵释放、战略投资未实现收益0.273十亿美元，GAAP每股收益亦非纯经营结果。[1]
现金质量：H1 经营现金流2.257、物业设备购置0.255，严格自由现金流2.002十亿美元，去年同期1.998十亿美元，几乎持平；公司自由现金流2.299含0.297并购相关现金加回。Q2公司自由现金流0.634对严格自由现金流0.473，不能将加回当作免付现金。[1]
股权激励费用及股东现金：H1现金流表股权激励费用1.199十亿美元，严格自由现金流再扣股权激励费用仅0.803十亿美元。此为机会成本近似而非实际现金流或精确所有者收益；费用表股权激励费用1.213与现金流表差异不可混填。2029年股权激励费用低于收入10%是管理层目标，不是已实现。[1]
资产负债表已变：06-30现金2.503、短期证券2.161、长期证券2.043合计6.707十亿美元，对短债2.082、长债5.435为净债0.810十亿美元（不含租赁、战略投资不等同现金）。商誉9.837十亿美元，整合/减值风险明显上升。[1]
资本配置：Armis于04-20以约7.6十亿美元现金对价完成，Veza于03-02约1.2十亿美元大部分现金；H1并购现金流出8.776十亿美元、回购2.225十亿美元。Q2利息费用0.066十亿美元对上年0.006，短期商业票据加重再融资依赖；新增2028–2056票据分散长期到期但不消除投资回报风险。[1][7]
Sweep补充：Salesforce Ben更新称公司确认09-01完成收购，并载公司发言人称技术加强AI原生开发和CRM代理部署，拒绝确认金额；09-08 CRN亦载公司邮件声明。属于具公司回应的二级来源交叉核验，不冒充已取得公司公告/交易协议；不采信“数亿美元”估计、不将其计入现金或商誉。[11][13]
09-08 Reuters收盘报道将软件弱势与Astra替代担忧联系；这是市场解释而非ServiceNow经营下滑证明。研究判断：既要观察CRM代理部署获客，也要验证新旧席位替代、有机未来12个月剩余履约义务、股权激励费用和整合费用，不能只看平台AI标签。[12]
09-09Goldman会议已发生：CEO称CRM 年度合同价值超过2十亿美元、同比翻倍，并计划把简化AI帮助台推向50万中端客户机会，仍处beta。该机会与原有企业ITSM集成；当前没有该产品独立收入、利润率、定价/上线时间和获客成本表，故不提高基准现金率。[19]
Citi会议的已取得二级摘要引用Raleigh L1代理98%首次处理准确度及65%服务台成本降低、欧洲能源客户潜在节省等案例；这些为管理层/客户个案，不是NOW GAAP利润。摘要把9倍用量增长写为2024年Q1–Q2，时间口径可疑，未采为2026增速事实，待原始会议确认。[20]
财务复核结论：历史四季总毛利率77.28%→76.63%→75.07%→70.68%逐季下行，Q2 GAAP营业率4.06%；高合同增长尚未消除并购摊销、股权激励费用和交付成本压力。维持先看严格自由现金流而非调整后自由现金流的质量标准。[1][2][3]
H1资本配置预警已出现：2026H1现金回购2.225十亿美元，高于严格自由现金流2.002的0.223，也高于自由现金流减股权激励费用代理0.803的1.422。Q2单季没有现金回购，不称连续Q2超支或无偿付能力。本轮明确以半年披露窗口复核该“回购持续高于可分配现金”分支；当前仅确认H1这一窗口，不能与另一过去12个月经营阈值混用。[18]
估值
估值方法
扣股权激励费用的股东现金代理×倍数；以GAAP每股收益和严口径自由现金流作交叉核验，非正式现金流折现或目标价
更多依据与口径（5项）
本轮尝试Yahoo实时页面仅返回价格及空增长表；TwelveData提取表仍把Jun2026列当前季度，FY2026/FY2027 每股收益4.12/5.03、各40位、范围3.64–4.33/4.21–5.32，仅为滞后快照且与搜索摘要数值不一致，不列为当前一致预期。[21]
公司FY2026订阅收入指引15.760–15.780十亿美元；作者仅以中点15.770加自设专业服务0.430得到总收入计算基数16.200，再按情景推演FY2027。[1]
股东现金代理=收入×（（经营现金流−资本开支）占收入比例−股权激励费用占收入），保守地将股权激励费用视为经济成本；此口径不加回收购交易现金费用。股数1.05十亿股取Q3指引作作者固定未来假设，不预测未来真实稀释。[1]
用25/32/40倍资本化下一年现金，不另加净现金，以免已计利息的股东现金与企业价值混用；未建立完整债务偿还日程，故只作情景筛选。
作者25/32/40倍及FY2027增长12%/18%/24%、严格自由现金流率28%/32%/36%、股权激励费用率16%/14%/12%维持。9月9日CRM/帮助台发言没有可核验新增现金与并购有机桥，不能支持上调估值。[18][19]
| 情景 | 盈利/现金流输入 | 倍数/折现假设 | 价值输出 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 保守 | 作者FY2027假设：收入18.144十亿美元；（经营现金流−资本开支）占收入比例28%，再扣股权激励费用 16%；股东现金代理2.177十亿美元；新增合同减速，AI/并购投入压低现金率，股权激励费用难降 | 股东现金代理25倍；稀释股数1.05十亿股（作者固定假设） | 51.84美元/股；较09-10收盘-60.48%；作者现金情景 |
| 基准 | 作者FY2027假设：收入19.116十亿美元；（经营现金流−资本开支）占收入比例32%，再扣股权激励费用 14%；股东现金代理3.441十亿美元；工作流扩容及并购交叉销售，现金转换逐步正常化 | 股东现金代理32倍；稀释股数1.05十亿股（作者固定假设） | 104.86美元/股；较09-10收盘-20.05%；作者现金情景 |
| 乐观 | 作者FY2027假设：收入20.088十亿美元；（经营现金流−资本开支）占收入比例36%，再扣股权激励费用 12%；股东现金代理4.821十亿美元；AI扩容持续，整合顺利且股权激励费用占比下降 | 股东现金代理40倍；稀释股数1.05十亿股（作者固定假设） | 183.66美元/股；较09-10收盘+40.02%；作者现金情景 |
保守股东现金代理扣股权激励费用经济成本、不加回并购现金费用；并非GAAP现金流或正式现金流折现，可能低估部分增长性投入价值，但防止把股权激励费用当免费融资。
基准104.86美元较09-10收盘-20.06%。管理层CRM 年度合同价值与beta扩张给出经营验证方向，而不是立即改变现金输入；三种情景不因股价回落自动变为可靠买点。[19][22]
当前价格需要怎样的盈利
09-10收盘131.17美元÷基准FY2027股东现金代理每股3.2770=40.03倍，高于作者32倍。四季披露GAAP每股收益合计1.600对应81.98倍，含税和投资因素；不能把滞后TwelveData估计当现时前瞻 市盈率。[1][3][4][21][22]
技术面
2026-09-10常规收盘131.17美元；较2026-09-09收盘+0.05%。低于20日均线132.44；高于50日均线119.00；高于200日均线118.13。统计不构成投资价值判断。[22]
更多依据与口径（4项）
20日原始收盘回报+4.99%，末日成交量/此前20日均量0.80倍。20日观察区间117.59–149.60美元；60日89.39–149.60美元。不是保证支撑或压力。[22]
采用251个交易日原始close，非股息再投资总回报；拆股口径沿用行情供应商。不以量比推定机构净流或成本。[22]
尚缺数据：逐笔成交量加权均价（VWAP）、同业相对强弱、完整公司行动交叉核验、期权/借券定位与13F全量持仓。
行情价格：131.17 美元 · NOW · 行情日期 2026-09-10 · 直接行情来源
| 20日简单移动平均线 | 50日简单移动平均线 | 200日简单移动平均线 | 20日低 / 高 | 60日低 / 高 | 20日回报（%） | 20日量比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 132.4405 | 118.9978 | 118.1307 | 117.59 / 149.6 | 89.39 / 149.6 | 4.9864 | 0.8006 |
计算口径：Yahoo 日线原始 close；均线为简单均线；未按股息再投资调整；窗口高低为观察区间，不是内在价值或保证有效支撑。量比=末日成交量/此前20个交易日均量。
更多依据与口径（2项）
样本交易日：251
行情证据文件：/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260911/market/NOW-raw.json
筹码 / 持仓结构
H1回购2.225十亿美元，Q2稀释平均股数1.034十亿股对上年1.047十亿股；年初回购计划增加5十亿美元是授权不是执行量。需同时看回购现金、期权/RSU及每股现金，不能仅看回购新闻。[1][3]
更多依据与口径（3项）
H1 股权激励费用（SBC）现金流调整1.199十亿美元，Q2费用股权激励费用（SBC）0.655十亿美元；股权激励费用（SBC）会在现金流表加回却可能稀释股东。[1]
SEC索引已重查至09-11，未逐笔复核全部最新Form 4与机构13F。新闻网站“某机构增持”通常是历史季度持仓披露，不使用这些二级标题判断09-10资金净流入；空头、期权拥挤和主力成本保持缺失。[16]
H1资本配置预警已出现：2026H1现金回购2.225十亿美元，高于严格自由现金流（FCF）2.002的0.223，也高于自由现金流（FCF）减股权激励费用（SBC）代理0.803的1.422。Q2单季没有现金回购，不称连续Q2超支或无偿付能力。本轮明确以半年披露窗口复核该“回购持续高于可分配现金”分支；当前仅确认H1这一窗口，不能与另一滚动12个月（TTM）经营阈值混用。[18]
催化剂 / 近期大事
| 时间 / 确认状态 | 事件 | 事件性质 | 观察 / 论点影响 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | 2026Q2业绩与Q3展望 | 已发生 | 未来12个月剩余履约义务（cRPO）固定汇率21.5%，Q3指引20%；检查收入前移后能否达到订阅指引。[1] |
| 2026-04-20 | Armis现金收购完成 | 已发生 | 整合收入、GAAP毛利、利息费用及商誉，不将购买价当增长价值。[7] |
| 2026-09-09 10:15 PT（Citi）、10:50 PT（Goldman） | Citi与Goldman投资者会议 | 已发生；Goldman有完整二级转录，Citi部分摘要 | 09-09会议时间已过，已核验CEO的CRM 年度合同价值（ACV）/帮助台beta陈述；不再写尚未开场。Citi用量倍数时间表述有矛盾，不采为2026增长；没有据此改Q3收入指引。[19][20] |
| 下一报告季度；精确发布日期未确认 | 2026Q3业绩 | 待确认 | 订阅3.975–3.980十亿美元、未来12个月剩余履约义务（cRPO）固定汇率20%、非GAAP营业率31%；指引不是实绩。[1] |
| 09-07媒体更新称09-01完成；09-08 CRN跟进 | Sweep收购与CRM代理部署扩展 | 媒体载公司回应；非独立交易公告 | 金额拒绝披露，不把媒体估计填入财务；看实施周期、整合成本与交叉销售。[11][13] |
| 09-09已谈及；商业上线日未确认 | 中端AI帮助台beta及CRM扩容 | 管理层产品计划 | 50万为潜在客户机会不是已付费客户；验证上线、定价、获客成本及与ITSM既有收费的替代关系。[19] |
下行情景详解
已有基准
Q2 未来12个月剩余履约义务（cRPO）固定汇率21.5%、Q3订阅指引3.975–3.980十亿美元沿用；H1严格自由现金流（FCF）2.002、扣股权激励费用（SBC）代理0.803十亿美元及06-30净债0.810仍为硬财务基线。CRM 年度合同价值（ACV）和beta机会没有推翻该现金约束。[17][18][19]
可观察触发条件：区分公司指引与研究预警
作者警戒线（不是公司指引）：连续两季未来12个月剩余履约义务（cRPO）固定汇率增长低于18%，或Q3订阅低于公司3.975十亿美元下沿，需拆开汇率、并购和收入前移。[1]
更多依据与口径（6项）
作者警戒线：GAAP总毛利率持续低于70%，或滚动严格自由现金流（FCF）率低于28%且股权激励费用（SBC）率高于16%，意味着AI/收购规模未转化为股东现金。
作者警戒线：净债超过3十亿美元、商业票据无法平稳滚动或回购仍大于可支配自由现金流（FCF），需优先评估财务弹性。
重大服务/安全事故或联邦客户采购延迟：10-Q中单一联邦渠道伙伴占Q2及H1收入13%，渠道集中不等同最终客户集中，但回款延迟有传导风险。[7]
新增研究监控：若代理产品扩张未带来可比有机未来12个月剩余履约义务（cRPO）增长，却增加收购现金、股权激励费用（SBC）或渠道销售成本，视为产品叙事未转化股东现金；Sweep对价及交易后财务待下一披露，不能假设已新增多少债务。[11][13]
作者新增验证：若中端AI帮助台新增客户伴随企业客户降档、每用户平均收入（ARPU）或股权激励费用（SBC）/销售成本恶化，CRM合同价值扩张亦不足以提高每股现金。管理层自建成本优劣及个案节省仍须独立验证。[19][20]
H1资本配置预警已出现：2026H1现金回购2.225十亿美元，高于严格自由现金流（FCF）2.002的0.223，也高于自由现金流（FCF）减股权激励费用（SBC）代理0.803的1.422。Q2单季没有现金回购，不称连续Q2超支或无偿付能力。本轮明确以半年披露窗口复核该“回购持续高于可分配现金”分支；当前仅确认H1这一窗口，不能与另一滚动12个月（TTM）经营阈值混用。[18]
经营 → 盈利 / 现金 → 估值传导
AI工作流竞争或预算转移→新增年度合同价值（ACV）、续约扩容变弱→未来12个月剩余履约义务（cRPO）与次年订阅减速；高固定研发与销售成本令GAAP利润降幅大于收入降幅。
更多依据与口径（3项）
Armis/Veza整合不佳→摊销与交付成本高、交叉销售未实现→自由现金流（FCF）减弱而债务/利息刚性→回购收缩或新增稀释→每股价值下降。[7]
AI收入可能替代旧席位收费；98%续约不计普通缩单，不能单独排除定价侵蚀。[6]
估值风险与经营风险叠加：增长放慢会同时压缩现金输入和资本化倍数，技术强势不能阻断这条路径。
假设敏感性：不是价格底部
原作者压力测试：19.116十亿美元收入再降5%，严格自由现金流（FCF）率32%降29%、股权激励费用（SBC）14%、倍数25、股数1.05十亿股，价值64.86美元，较09-10收盘-50.55%。不作保证底价；净债和整合持续恶化时须重估。
下次披露如何确认 / 推翻
下一Q3实际/10-Q核对订阅与有机未来12个月剩余履约义务（cRPO）、并购现金加回、股权激励费用（SBC）/股数、短债及利息；Goldman/Citi会议已过，新增重点是beta转付费及CRM 年度合同价值（ACV）到收入/现金的桥，而不是重复等待会议开场。[17][18][19] 半年复核回购/现金代理覆盖，并与滚动12个月（TTM）严格自由现金流（FCF）率31.09%及股权激励费用（SBC）率14.83%的独立经营条件分开；后两项尚未满足低于28%且高于16%的联合预警。[18][3][6]
论点监控
| 监控指标 | 升级条件 | 失效信号 | 复核频率 | 直接来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 未来12个月剩余履约义务（cRPO）固定汇率增长 | 持续≥20%且排除并购/期限扩张仍强 | 连续两季<18%（作者阈值） | 每季 | [1][7] |
| 严格自由现金流（FCF）与股权激励费用（SBC） | 滚动自由现金流（FCF）率≥32%、股权激励费用（SBC）率≤14% | 自由现金流（FCF）率<28%且股权激励费用（SBC）>16%（作者阈值） | 每季/滚动十二月 | [1][6] |
| 收购整合/净债 | 毛利改善、现金回收、净债下降 | 商誉减值或净债>3十亿美元（作者阈值） | 每季 | [7] |
| Q3订阅收入 | 超过3.980十亿美元且无额外提前确认 | 低于3.975十亿美元公司下沿 | 2026Q3业绩 | [1] |
| CRM/中端AI帮助台商业化 | beta转实际付费，并披露增量收入/消费与客户ROI | 企业降档/席位替代、获客和交付成本上升却缺增量现金 | 产品发布与每季财报 | [19][20] |
投资框架判断
框架判断，不代表投资大师本人观点。
更多依据与口径（3项）
巴菲特框架：嵌入工作流与续订支持护城河，但Q2毛利70.68%、H1扣股权激励费用（SBC）现金0.803十亿美元要求对增长付费保持克制；Pass/观察，中置信度。[17][18]
芒格框架：最短失败路径是高价并购、AI交付成本、股权激励费用（SBC）和旧席位替代同时恶化。管理层CRM翻倍、50万机会与自建成本说法需拆成事实、目标和推销；个案客户ROI不能外推全公司，Pass。[19][20]
段永平框架：生意的治理/整合需求清楚，人和资本配置仍需检验收购回报；现价高于作者扣股权激励费用（SBC）现金基准，不因beta叙事追价。三框架共同要求实际现金改善，不代表相关投资者本人意见。[17][18][19]
缺失数据与影响
当前可靠共识仍缺：Yahoo直接页面缺估计表，TwelveData仍列Jun2026当前季度且与搜索摘要不同；未确认独立更新日期和调整口径，不把4.12/5.03当09-11现时共识。[21]
更多依据与口径（5项）
2025Q3/Q4按2026Q2新非GAAP战略投资定义完全重列未取得；拆股已统一但不能拼成完全可比非GAAP 滚动12个月（TTM）。
AI/CRM新增GAAP收入、独立利润及新旧席位替代、有机并购桥仍未分开披露；50万中端客户只是目标市场。[19]
Citi只有部分二级摘要，9倍用量所述2024时点可疑；Goldman全文已取得，但管理层自建TCO与排名说法未独立验证。[19][20]
Sweep对价/正式协议及下一季度收购财务待取得；06-30净债不是交易后09-11即时负债。未建立并购调整投入资本回报率（ROIC）/完整净债到期表。[11][13][17]
机构13F、Form 4全量净流、借券及期权系列未核验；当前常规收盘已更新至09-10，不使用盘后/隔夜页面价格替代。[16][22]
紧凑证据索引
[1] ServiceNow 2026 Q2 财报
发布日期：2026-07-22
证据文件：/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/005_ServiceNow/source_1.txt
Subscription revenues of $3,877 million in Q2 2026, representing 24.5% year-over-year growth, 23% in constant currency • Total revenues of $3,987 million in Q2 2026, representing 24% year-over-year growth, 22.5% in constant currency • Current remaining performance obligations of $13.20 billion as of Q2 2026, representing 21% year-over-year growth, 21.5% in constant currency • Remaining performance obligations of $29.0 billion as of Q2 2026,
[2] ServiceNow 2026 Q1 财报
发布日期：2026-04-22
证据文件：/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/005_ServiceNow/source_2.txt
Subscription revenues of $3,671 million in Q1 2026, representing 22% year-over-year growth, 19% in constant currency • Total revenues of $3,770 million in Q1 2026, representing 22% year-over-year growth, 19% in constant currency • Current remaining performance obligations of $12.64 billion as of Q1 2026, representing 22.5% year-over-year growth, 21% in constant currency • Remaining performance obligations of $27.7 billion as of Q1 2026, rep
[3] ServiceNow 2025 Q4及全年财报
发布日期：2026-01-28
证据文件：/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/005_ServiceNow/source_3.txt
Total revenues of $3,568 million in Q4 2025, representing 20.5% year-over-year growth, 19.5% in constant currency Current remaining performance obligations of $12.85 billion as of Q4 2025, representing 25% year-over-year growth, 21% in constant currency Remaining performance obligations of $28.2 billion as of Q4 2025, representing 26.5% year-over-year growth, 22.5% in constant currency Now Assist net new ACV in Q4 2025 more than doubled year-over
[4] ServiceNow 2025 Q3财报 HTML
发布日期：2025-10-29
证据文件：/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/005_ServiceNow/source_5.txt
Total revenues of $3,407 million in Q3 2025, representing 22% year-over-year growth, 20.5% in constant currency Current remaining performance obligations of $11.35 billion as of Q3 2025, representing 21% year-over-year growth, 20.5% in constant currency Remaining performance obligations of $24.3 billion as of Q3 2025, representing 24% year-over-year growth, 23% in constant currency ServiceNow’s Board of Directors authorizes a five-for-one split o
[5] ServiceNow股东批准5比1拆股
发布日期：2025-12-05
证据文件：/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/005_ServiceNow/source_6.txt
Shareholders of record as of December 16, 2025, will receive four additional shares for each share held, to be distributed after market close on or about December 17, 2025. Trading on a split-adjusted basis is expected to begin on December 18, 2025. Use of Forward-Looking Statements This press release contains “forward‑looking statements” about the expectations, beliefs, plans, intentions and strategies relating to ServiceNow’s anticipated stock
[6] ServiceNow 2025年报及三年财务报表
发布日期：日期未确认（内含截至2025-12-31的10-K）
证据文件：/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/005_ServiceNow/source_8.txt
GAAP net cash provided by operating activities $ 5,444 $ 4,267 $ 3,398 Purchases of property and equipment (868) (852) (694) Business combination and other related costs 60 23 24 Legal settlements —
[7] ServiceNow 2026 Q2 10-Q
发布日期：2026-07-23
证据文件：/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/005_ServiceNow/source_9.txt
On April 20, 2026, we acquired all outstanding shares of Armis Security Ltd. (“Armis”), a cyber-exposure management and cyber-physical security solutions provider, for preliminary purchase price consideration of approximately $7.6 billion, settled in cash. The acquisition is intended to expand our security workflow offerings and advance AI-native, proactive cybersecurity and vulnerability response across all connected devices. Veza Technologies
[9] ServiceNow Q2公告重新获取：9月9日投资者会议日程
发布日期：2026-07-22
证据文件：/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260909/evidence/005_ServiceNow/q2_full.txt
Upcoming Investor Conferences ServiceNow today announced that it will attend and have executives present at three upcoming investor conferences. These include: ServiceNow President and Chief Financial Officer Gina Mastantuono will participate in a fireside chat at the Deutsche Bank Technology Conference on Thursday, August 27, 2026, at 11:40 a.m. PT. ServiceNow President and Chief Financial Officer Gina Mastantuono will participate in a fireside chat at the Citi Global TMT Conference on Wednesday, September 9, 2026, at 10:15 a.m. PT. ServiceNow Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Bill McDermott will participate in a keynote at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia Technology Conference on Wednesday, September 9, 2026, at 10:50 a.m. PT. The live webcast for each will be accessible on the investor relations section of the ServiceNow website at https://investors.servicenow.com and archived on the ServiceNow site for a period of 30 days. Statement Regarding Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures We use the following non-GAAP financial measures in a
[10] ServiceNow 2026Q2 SEC 10-Q重新核验
发布日期：2026-07-23
证据文件：/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260909/evidence/005_ServiceNow/latest_10q.txt
On April 20, 2026, we acquired all outstanding shares of Armis Security Ltd. (“Armis”), a cyber-exposure management and cyber-physical security solutions provider, for preliminary purchase price consideration of approximately $ 7.6 billion, settled in cash. The acquisition is intended to expand our security workflow offerings and advance AI-native, proactive cybersecurity and vulnerability response across all connected devices. Veza Technologies, Inc. On March 2, 2026, we acquired all outstanding shares of Veza Technologies, Inc. (“Veza”), a privately held AI identity security company that pro
[11] Salesforce Ben：Sweep收购及公司发言人回应；金额不披露
发布日期：2026-09-07（更新；首发09-04）
证据文件：/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260909/evidence/005_ServiceNow/direct_sweep.txt
Sweep provides an agentic layer for enterprise systems that connects, interprets, and governs systems as they scale, working across enterprise platforms like Salesforce, HubSpot, and ServiceNow. The ITSM company confirmed that it had completed its acquisition of Sweep on September 1. Another Salesforce Ecosystem Acquisition Sweep was founded in 2021 by Ido Gaver and Eran Kirshenboim. It has raised $46M in disclosed funding, with its $22.5M Series B round announced in May 2025. Its product is meant to make go-to-market teams’ systems more adaptive, with AI given the ability to act on information within enterprise software, instead of simply analyzing it. ServiceNow and Sweep have not officially announced the deal or disclosed how much it is worth, but a ServiceNow spokesperson told SF Ben: “Sweep’s technology and expertise strengthen our AI-native development capabilities and advance agentic deployment for CRM. The impact for customers is direct: faster time-to-value as they scale agentic systems.” They said they would not confirm the value of the deal. This appears to be another ServiceNow acquisition of a company that enjoyed a reasonable amount of growth in the Salesforce ecosystem. ServiceNow acquired Logik.AI , an AI-powered Configure, Price, Quote (CPQ) solution, in April 2025. This was shortly after stepping into the world of CRM – with Salesforce also stepping into the ITSM world , signalling a flare-up in competition b
[12] Reuters经Kitco转载：软件竞争担忧与9月8日市场
发布日期：2026-09-08
证据文件：/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260909/evidence/005_ServiceNow/reuters_kitco_excerpt.txt
Salesforce (CRM.N), and Intuit (INTU.O), fell about 4%, while ServiceNow (NOW.N), lost 5%. OpenAI's launch last week of its newest model, GPT-6 Astra, reignited speculation that AI could compete with services now offered by specialized software companies. The S&P 500 software and services index (.SPLRCIS), fell 1.4%, down for a second straight day. "Astra has kind of reignited the software disruption fears and it's resumed that old trend that we got used to for a while, where semiconductor stocks and data center capex beneficiaries do well, while software stocks do poorly," said Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio man
[13] CRN：Sweep收购与公司邮件声明（二级交叉核验）
发布日期：2026-09-08
证据文件：/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260909/evidence/005_ServiceNow/retrieved_5.txt
However, in an emailed response to a CRN request for more information, the company, in a statement, said the acquisition of Sweep will help ServiceNow improve its AI capabilities around CRM. âSweep specializes in accelerating enterprise application implementations for our customers. The solution will strengthen and accelerate our implementation capabilities, helping our customers achieve faster time to value. The technology and expertise strengthen our AI-native development capabilities and advance agentic deployment for CRM. The impact for customers is direct: faster time-to-value as they scale agentic systems,â the company said. ServiceNow President of Global Customer Operations Paul
[14] SEC submissions索引：本次检查范围与最新披露时点
发布日期：2026-09-09（检索日，非每项申报日）
证据文件：/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260909/evidence/005_ServiceNow/direct_submissions.txt
"filings": { "recent": { "accessionNumber": [ "0001667422-26-000036", "0001649609-26-000035", "0001659774-26-000012", "0001959173-26-006547", "0001959173-26-006508", "0001950047-26-008744", "0001373715-26-000083", "0001334944-26-000034", "0001649609-26-000032", "0001667422-26-000033", "0002111929-26-000016", "0001465391-26-000030", "0001334944-26-000032", "0001667422-26-000031", "0002103469-26-000012", "0001649609-26-000030", "0001781064-26-000018",
[16] SEC最新申报索引及财务截止复核
发布日期：2026-09-11
证据文件：/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260911/evidence/005_ServiceNow/submissions.txt
"filings":{"recent":{"accessionNumber":["0001667422-26-000036","0001649609-26-000035","0001659774-26-000012","0001959173-26-006547","0001959173-26-006508","0001950047-26-008744","0001373715-26-000083","0001334944-26-000034","0001649609-26-000032","0001667422-26-000033","0002111929-26-000016","0001465391-26-000030","0001334944-26-000032","0001667422-26-000031","0002103469-26-000012","0001649609-26-000030","0001781064-26-000018","0001465391-26-000028","0002111929-26-000014","0001659774-26-000010","0001667422-26-000029","0001465391-26-000026","0001781064-26-000016","0001334944-26-000030","0001649609-26-000028","0002111929-26-000012","0001373715-26-000076","0001373715-26-000074","0001373715-26-000073","0001373715-26-000072","0001773298-26-000005","0001767659-26-000008","0001773298-26-000002","0001959173-26-004083","0001259158-26-000002","0001767659-26-000006","0001659774-26-000006","0001831384-26-000002","0001181469-26-000002","0001876796-26-000002","0001589849-26-000004","0001373715-26-00
[17] ServiceNow Q2 10-Q重新获取：现金、债务、收购
发布日期：2026-07-23
证据文件：/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260911/evidence/005_ServiceNow/latest_10q.txt
On April 20, 2026, we acquired all outstanding shares of Armis Security Ltd. (“Armis”), a cyber-exposure management and cyber-physical security solutions provider, for preliminary purchase price consideration of approximately $7.6 billion, settled in cash. The acquisition is intended to expand our security workflow offerings and advance AI-native, proactive cybersecurity and vulnerability response across all connected devices. Veza Technologies, Inc. On March 2, 2026, we acquired all outstanding shares of Veza Technologies, Inc. (“Veza”), a privately held AI identity security company that provides a unified access platform, with native products offering access capabilities across search, intelligence, monitoring and workflows, for approximately $1.2 billion, substantially in cash. The acquisition is intended to extend the capabilities of our security and risk portfolios to include identity security, which will enable organizations to understand and control who and what has access to their critical data, applications, systems, and AI artifacts. 12 Table of Contents The allocation of the total purchase price for Armis and Veza is summarized below (in millions): Armis Veza Current assets $ 273 $ 109 Intangible assets 2,530 356 Goodwill 5,323 826 Deferred tax assets, non-current 405 53 Other assets 77 1 Assets acquired $ 8,608 $ 1,345 Deferred revenue, current 137 18
[18] ServiceNow Q2财报及Q3指引重新核验
发布日期：2026-07-22
证据文件：/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260911/evidence/005_ServiceNow/q2_release.txt
Subscription revenues of $3,877 million in Q2 2026, representing 24.5% year-over-year growth, 23% in constant currency •Total revenues of $3,987 million in Q2 2026, representing 24% year-over-year growth, 22.5% in constant currency •Current remaining performance obligations of $13.20 billion as of Q2 2026, representing 21% year-over-year growth, 21.5% in constant currency •Remaining performance obligations of $29.0 billion as of Q2 2026, representing 21% year-over-year growth, 22% in constant currency •ServiceNow AI crossed $1 billion in annual contract value in Q2 2026 SANTA CLARA, Calif. - July 22, 2026 - ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW), the AI control tower for business reinvention, today announced financial results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2026, with subscription revenues of $3,877 million in Q2 2026, representing 24.5% year-over-year growth and 23% in constant currency. “ServiceNow’s exceptional Q2 results solidify our position as the fastest-growing major enterprise software
[19] 9月9日Goldman会议全文转录：管理层陈述非审计财务
发布日期：2026-09-09
证据文件：/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260911/evidence/005_ServiceNow/goldman_full.txt
Why our CRM is doubling on a year-over-year basis, and it has crossed $2 billion in ACV. The same is true also for the employee experience. The integration power of that ITSM platform is everything. Let me help you out with another thing. It is very clear that people want these simple AI security desks or these simple AI help desks. We have something coming for all of those people. We are going to take it to 500,000 mid-market customers globally. We are now in a very, very highly exciting beta with many of the biggest companies in the world, and we are going to be able to take this now to 500,000 customers globally. Also the existing customers will be able to integrate it back into the ITSM core. They can actually use a simple AI help desk for simple AI tasks and then integrate it back in with pure visibility into all the assets, into all the logs, into all the actions in a company in a fully audited manner, so it is not a one-off point solution. I think this will really change the market dynamics for some of the point solution providers that have a good time copying all of our information as if it was theirs. It is going to be a lot of fun. It is coming to a theater near you real soon. Gabriela Borges Analyst, Goldman Sachs Stay on this beta, because I can tell you are excited about it. What is unique about the way that this beta addresses the problem of ITSM that has not been done before? Bill McDermott Chairman and CEO, ServiceNow Well, I think it just m
[20] 9月9日Citi会议二级摘要（非完整原始转录）
发布日期：2026-09-09
证据文件：/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260911/evidence/005_ServiceNow/citi_call.txt
## Operational updates and product momentum ServiceNow highlighted early customer wins in agentic automation, especially in IT support. Among the examples cited: * The City of Raleigh became the first municipal government to go live with the company’s L1 IT specialist agent. * ServiceNow said the city achieved 98% first-touch accuracy and cut IT service desk costs by 65%. * The deployment required no major engineering backbone and went live quickly. * A European energy company used a proof of concept to automate 500,000 IT service requests a year and said it could save more than $5 million. Mastantuono said those results are helping drive a “consumption flywheel,” where more usage leads to more AI credits and more expansion revenue. She said actual usage rose 9x from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2024 and is trending better than the company expected. “What happens is if they don’t necessarily top up on the assist packs on top, they renew early,” she said. “There’s lots of actual consumption happening.” ... ## Security, risk and acquisitions ServiceNow also said it is now the fastest-growing top-10 security vendor, a position management believes is not fully reflected in the market. ... ## Competition and market co
[21] TwelveData估计表：页面仍列Jun2026当前季度，滞后
发布日期：2026-09-11（检索日）
证据文件：/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260911/evidence/005_ServiceNow/consensus_twelve.txt
### Analysis | Earnings estimate | Current quarter (Jun 2026) | Next quarter (Sep 2026) | Current year (Dec 2026) | Next year (Dec 2027) | |---|---|---|---|---| | Number of analysts | 37 | 36 | 40 | 40 | | Average estimate | 0.86 | 1.09 | 4.12 | 5.03 | | Low estimate | 0.74 | 0.88 | 3.64 | 4.21 | | High estimate | 0.92 | 1.20 | 4.33 | 5.32 | | Last year EPS | 0.82 | 0.96 | 3.51 | 4.12 | | Revenue estimate | Current quarter (Jun 2026) | Next quarter (Sep 2026) | Current year (Dec 2026) | Next year (Dec 2027) | |---|---|---|---|---| | Number of Analysts | 35 | 34 | 41 | 41 | | Avg. estimate | 3.93B | 4.12B | 16.20B | 19.19B | | Low estimate | 3.92B | 4.06B | 16.15B | 18.81B | | High estimate | 3.98B | 4.21B | 16.40B | 20.28B | | Last year sales | 3.22B | 3.41B | 13.28B | 16.20B | | Sales growth | 0.22 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.18 | | EPS trend | Current quarter (Jun 2026) | Next quarter (Sep 2026) | Current year (Dec 2026) | Next year (Dec 202
[22] NOW 2026-09-10常规收盘原始日线
发布日期：2026-09-10
证据文件：/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260911/market/NOW-raw.json
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