单位与术语说明
价格与估值参照
假设情景作者经营与倍数情景,非一致预期;租赁付款、资本开支及现金转换可能令每股收益偏离股东现金。
模型口径与限制
经营驱动的未来一年标准化每股收益×作者市盈率情景;用已验证历史自由现金流收益率作现金质量校验,而非机械套当前GAAP盈利;历史锚为FY2026收入331.839十亿美元、营业利润155.237十亿美元与每股收益17.95/非GAAP17.28。[1];作者FY2027情景使用收入增8%/15%/22%、营业利润率43%/46%/48%、税率20%、股数7.50/7.45/7.40十亿股,其他损益假设为零。保守情景低于公司双位数增长指引,代表指引失效而非公司预测。[5];本轮Yahoo抓取表给FY2027标准化每股收益19.75(33位、19.21–20.70)、FY2028 23.57(33位、20.93–26.00);页面同时有GAAP/Normalized标签、上年17.28,具体调整定义和估计更新时间未独立确认。页面行情510.12也不是本批09-10收盘492.44,不使用其顶部价格;列为检索所得但时点未证实快照,仅交叉检验。[24][25];9月11日复核保留收入增长8%/15%/22%、营业率43%/46%/48%、22/28/34倍本报告假设,不因股价、重列或扩容报道提高锚。两季自由现金流预警已触发,意味着估值置信度受到现金反证约束,而非自动判为价值底部。[1][2][20][23];情景范围受经营与倍数双重假设支配,分部透明度不等于自由现金流改善。已触发的两季现金预警令基准价值不能直接转成买入结论;09-10价格492.44美元,FY2026严格自由现金流/全年平均稀释股数/股价约1.83%;扣融资租赁本金后约1.74%。不是用当日总市值计算的精确收益率。[19][25];66.987十亿美元严格自由现金流与扣融资租赁本金后的63.886均保留原定义;63.886不是完整可分配股东现金。再扣本年全部其他投资净流出19.861,可得44.025十亿美元广义现金负担敏感性;非公司自由现金流、非正常化现金,也不代表每一笔其他投资都属经常资本开支。需桥接供应商回款及未来固定资产确认,避免重复扣款。[19];流动性限制:10-K称供应商协议受限投资11.3十亿美元,其中3.8在短期投资、7.5在股权及其他长期投资。账面净现金36.549含短期受限3.8;只扣这一已识别项目约为32.749,纳入已确认租赁后的对应净负债约55.770十亿美元。不可把不在76.843分子内的长期7.5再扣一次;受限不等于永久损失,也未证明其余资金全部可自由分配。[19];情景非保证目标价;技术观察不保证支撑。
按价格等比例定位;灰线仅为价格刻度,蓝色标记为所示日期收盘价;均不表示买卖信号。观察区间不是保证支撑或压力;点击标记查看原报告口径与来源。
PRICE RATING / 本报告新增分析 · 20260911
五档价格评级
FCF预警已触发·FY27盈利历史筛选:2026-09-10收盘492.44美元/股,四个边界325.48/448.64/527.81/642.85的五档内仅机械映射“持有”。综合投资评级待补证;旧警示已触发,原完整适用性不能续期;只保留历史/局部坐标,不提供实际买入或持有资格。
低价档以前提不变为条件;保守情景不是损失地板,基本面恶化须停用原档并重估。旧条件检查:FY27尚待实际;公司预期营业率下降不足1pp,新口径Azure44%–45%不可同旧口径约45%比较。尚未证实原联合经营分支,不能以分部重列当增长恶化或现金改善。;Q3 (15.803/20.299−1)×100=−22.15%;Q4 (19.639/25.568−1)×100=−23.19%,连续支已成立;全年66.987为正不抵消OR。旧持有只能是历史算术,不是续期的有效综合持有。
P 为正数股价(美元/股);边界归入左侧较低价格档。颜色对应文字评级,不代表涨跌预测;分币仅为计算显示精度,不是估值精度。
两季可比FCF下滑>20%已触发;组件融资及受限投资桥未全,机械“持有”仅历史坐标,综合投资评级待补证。
为什么这样分档?查看计算、依据与失效条件
估值与判断依据
保留FY26收入331.839十亿美元起点、FY27增长8/15/22%、营业率43/46/48%、税20%、7.50/7.45/7.40十亿股及22/28/34倍的361.64/527.81/714.28分币锚。0.90/0.85/1.00/0.90不变,但可比Q3/Q4 FCF连续同比下降超过20%已使原完整适用性失效,当前仅历史盈利敏感性。
- 严格FCF=CFO−现金PP&E:FY26Q3为15.803对20.299,同比−22.15%;Q4为19.639对25.568,−23.19%。旧OR条款已满足第一支,不因全年66.987仍为正而解除。融资租赁本金后全年63.886另列,Azure新口径44%–45%恒汇率指引不能与旧口径直接比较。未证实时间的Yahoo19.75/23.57不替代现金反证。(新报告证据路径:/financial_quality/quarterly_strict_fcf/2, /financial_quality/quarterly_strict_fcf/3, /financial_quality/warning_logic, /downside/triggers/1, /downside/update, /valuation/basis/2) 原报告依据 →
- 保留FY26收入331.839十亿美元起点、FY27增长8/15/22%、营业率43/46/48%、税20%、7.50/7.45/7.40十亿股及22/28/34倍的361.64/527.81/714.28分币锚。0.90/0.85/1.00/0.90不变,但可比Q3/Q4 FCF连续同比下降超过20%已使原完整适用性失效,当前仅历史盈利敏感性。 原报告依据 →
- 旧条件逐项复核:FY27尚待实际;公司预期营业率下降不足1pp,新口径Azure44%–45%不可同旧口径约45%比较。尚未证实原联合经营分支,不能以分部重列当增长恶化或现金改善。;Q3 (15.803/20.299−1)×100=−22.15%;Q4 (19.639/25.568−1)×100=−23.19%,连续支已成立;全年66.987为正不抵消OR。旧持有只能是历史算术,不是续期的有效综合持有。 原报告依据 →
估值窗口:FY27全年经营盈利情景;不是一年内股价必达期限。
失效后先重估,不是越跌越买
- 可比口径Azure增长、收入及公司展望共同恶化,或FY27营业利润率同比下降超过2个百分点,须重做增长/利润率/倍数的全档评级。 本次核验[not_yet_testable_new_reporting_basis]:FY27尚待实际;公司预期营业率下降不足1pp,新口径Azure44%–45%不可同旧口径约45%比较。尚未证实原联合经营分支,不能以分部重列当增长恶化或现金改善。
- 连续两个季度可比FCF同比下降超过20%或全年转负,或租赁付款和AI利用率显示资本回报不足,须纳入完整现金约束后全档重评。 本次核验[triggered]:Q3 (15.803/20.299−1)×100=−22.15%;Q4 (19.639/25.568−1)×100=−23.19%,连续支已成立;全年66.987为正不抵消OR。旧持有只能是历史算术,不是续期的有效综合持有。
买入档仅在基本面及模型前提持续成立时适用;跌价若来自盈利、偿债或经营能力恶化,应暂停使用原区间。卖出档不是做空指令。
四个边界如何计算
- 强力买入档上限:325.48 = 361.64 × 0.9。2026-09-11逐界复核:FY27收入增8%、营业率43%、税率20%、7.50十亿股、22倍的下行情景361.64;沿用原作者折让10%(factor 0.90):下行情景已经同时压收入增速、利润率和倍数;再留一层AI资本回报与现金转换误差,而不假设订阅护城河能消除损失。 旧预警/范围限制未修复,本界仅为历史或局部坐标,不提供真实买入/持有资格。 查看估值依据
data/batches/20260911/003_Microsoft.json#/valuation/rows/0/3 - 买入档上限:448.64 = 527.81 × 0.85。2026-09-11逐界复核:FY27收入增15%、营业率46%、税率20%、7.45十亿股、28倍的基准情景527.81;沿用原作者折让15%(factor 0.85):基准依赖Azure/企业订阅增长覆盖折旧和租赁成本,现金收益率偏低且维持性CapEx未分拆,要求买入档有明确基准折价。 旧预警/范围限制未修复,本界仅为历史或局部坐标,不提供真实买入/持有资格。 查看估值依据
data/batches/20260911/003_Microsoft.json#/valuation/rows/1/3 - 持有档上限:527.81 = 527.81 × 1.0。2026-09-11逐界复核:同一FY27经营基准与28倍情景527.81;沿用原作者边界选择为不加溢价(factor 1.00,额外安全边际0%):基准28倍已含业务质量,不用滞后共识再提高持有上限;高于基准开始要求乐观假设,归卖出档。 旧预警/范围限制未修复,本界仅为历史或局部坐标,不提供真实买入/持有资格。 查看估值依据
data/batches/20260911/003_Microsoft.json#/valuation/rows/1/3 - 卖出档上限:642.85 = 714.28 × 0.9。2026-09-11逐界复核:FY27收入增22%、营业率48%、税率20%、7.40十亿股、34倍的乐观情景714.28;沿用原作者折让10%(factor 0.90):乐观经营增长与34倍必须同时成立,AI回报和租赁承诺未充分验证;在乐观值前保留折让作为强力卖出分界,而非给予更高终值倍数。 旧预警/范围限制未修复,本界仅为历史或局部坐标,不提供真实买入/持有资格。 查看估值依据
data/batches/20260911/003_Microsoft.json#/valuation/rows/2/3
门槛由原估值锚与本轮作者设定的安全边际/溢价因子得出;不是公司指引、分析师共识或回测优化结果。它不改写原报告的综合研究判断,也不承诺在固定日期到价。
完整模型限制
现金预警已触发,综合投资评级待补证;仅保留历史FY27盈利四界,机械持有不代表当前可持有或买入资格。需要完整现金CapEx、融资租赁本金/经营租赁及AI利用率回报桥,不能用未开始租约账面重分类消除经济付款。分币锚不得用已圆整EPS反算;作者情景不是公司EPS指引或可靠定日共识,非维持CapEx拆分后的DCF。预警只能通过新可比现金证据和重建模型处理,不能靠跌价或全年FCF为正解除。 这是2026-09-11作者复核的条件价格筛选,不是原研究status/Review的改写或批准。因子为沿用的主观安全边际/边界纪律,非实证概率、回测优化、公司指引或按当前价格反推。四个边界对应五个价格档,分币只是显示精度;经营与偿债前提失效时停用低价买入资格并重估。卖出不代表做空;无仓位建议、交易指令、保证底部或损失上限。 新补FY26其他投资净流出19.861十亿美元及组件应收27.8;租赁本金后63.886尚非完整股东现金。再扣全部其他投资净流出的44.025仅广义现金负担敏感性,非正常化FCF。账面净现金含已识别受限短期投资3.8,不能当全部自由流动性,不能在EPS权益估值再机械扣全部净债。
Overview
五页看懂 · 结论、依据与边界
利润增长,租赁调整后的现金仍下降
维持原情景,不因新产品提高倍数
美元 · 每股 · 价格锚:2026-09-10(非实时)
灰色:本报告情景;蓝色:所示日期收盘价。条形从零起算,粗段表示区间;不是目标价或买卖信号。
高投入能否转成现金,比分类更重要
以新口径检查下一季增长与现金
五项决策摘要
基本面
两季现金预警已触发,增长不等于可分配现金
估值
维持原情景,现金反证限制安全边际
技术面
短期与长期均线方向分化,非价值结论
筹码 / 持仓结构
回购效果有限;新Form 4是赠与不是卖盘
催化剂 / 近期大事
扩容报道与治理提案已纳入,等现金兑现
基本面
业务与竞争格局
微软以M365/GitHub生产力与开发订阅、Azure消费式算力、行业应用及许可支持收费,Windows、XBOX和广告为另一业务组合。FY2027新结构Agents and Infra覆盖云、生产力/服务器许可与支持;Devices and Consumer覆盖Windows、XBOX及广告。报告结构反映经营管理,但本身不创造收入或现金。[20]
更多依据与口径(4项)
经济性来自企业工作流整合、持续订阅和规模化基础设施;但这是研究者对业务组合的判断,不等于永久定价权。云和AI面临激烈竞争及资本回收风险;协作产品还面对Slack等投诉者推动的解绑约束,套件捆绑不能无限强化优势。[1][7]
FY2027新结构:Agents and Infra整合Microsoft Cloud、生产力/服务器许可及咨询支持;Devices and Consumer包括Windows、XBOX和广告。GitHub云、其他开发云服务及Security Copilot迁入Microsoft 365云,Healthcare and Life Sciences云迁入Industry solutions;Azure和席位增长须用重列基数,旧分部历史不伪改为新分部。[12][13]
本次补齐重列实际金额:FY2026 Agents and Infra收入268.127、营业利润136.365十亿美元;Devices and Consumer收入63.712、营业利润18.872十亿美元。Azure101.938、M365 cloud100.299十亿美元是产品收入,不与集团分部重复相加。[20]
09-09Goldman会议二级报道载经营现金流称许可与消费式计费将混合:用户许可帮助预算可预测,AI按工作单元/结果消费;固定席位费下更高Copilot用量也增加成本。这是管理层经济模型陈述,不能只外推席位每用户平均收入(ARPU)而忽略推理成本。[26]
历史财务
| 期间 | 收入 | 营业利润 | 自由现金流 | 口径 / 备注 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023(截至6月30日) | 211.915十亿美元 [6] | 营业利润88.523十亿美元 [6] | 59.475十亿美元(经营现金流−现金购置固定资产(PP&E))[6] | FY非自然年;自由现金流不扣并购,也未单列扣除融资租赁本金;历史分部按年报展示口径。[6] |
| FY2024(截至6月30日) | 245.122十亿美元 [6] | 营业利润109.433十亿美元 [6] | 74.071十亿美元(经营现金流−现金购置固定资产(PP&E))[6] | FY非自然年;自由现金流不扣并购,也未单列扣除融资租赁本金;历史分部按年报展示口径。[6] |
| FY2025(截至6月30日) | 281.724十亿美元 [6] | 营业利润128.528十亿美元 [6] | 71.611十亿美元(经营现金流−现金购置固定资产(PP&E))[6] | FY非自然年;自由现金流不扣并购,也未单列扣除融资租赁本金;历史分部按年报展示口径。[6] |
| FY2026(截至6月30日) | 331.839十亿美元 [1] | 营业利润155.237十亿美元 [1] | 66.987十亿美元(经营现金流−现金购置固定资产(PP&E))[1] | FY非自然年;自由现金流不扣并购,也未单列扣除融资租赁本金;历史分部按年报展示口径。[1] |
过去四季 + 下一季公司指引
| 期间 | 收入 | 收入同比 | GAAP 毛利率 | 毛利率同比变化(百分点) | GAAP每股收益 | 调整后 每股收益 | 数据性质 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 Q1/自然年2025 Q3;截至2025-09-30 | 77.673十亿美元 [4] | 18.43%(按原表重算)[4] | GAAP 69.05%(毛利额÷收入)[4] | -0.31个百分点(按上年同期重算)[4] | 3.72美元,稀释每股 [4] | 4.13美元,仅排除OpenAI投资影响;[4] | 事实 |
| FY2026 Q2/自然年2025 Q4;截至2025-12-31 | 81.273十亿美元 [3] | 16.72%(按原表重算)[3] | GAAP 68.04%(毛利额÷收入)[3] | -0.66个百分点(按上年同期重算)[3] | 5.16美元,稀释每股 [3] | 4.14美元,仅排除OpenAI投资影响;[3] | 事实 |
| FY2026 Q3/自然年2026 Q1;截至2026-03-31 | 82.886十亿美元 [2] | 18.30%(按原表重算)[2] | GAAP 67.63%(毛利额÷收入)[2] | -1.08个百分点(按上年同期重算)[2] | 4.27美元,稀释每股 [2] | 4.27美元,仅排除OpenAI投资影响;[2] | 事实 |
| FY2026 Q4/自然年2026 Q2;截至2026-06-30 | 90.007十亿美元 [1] | 17.75%(按原表重算)[1] | GAAP 67.20%(毛利额÷收入)[1] | -1.39个百分点(按上年同期重算)[1] | 4.81美元,稀释每股 [1] | 4.74美元,仅排除OpenAI投资影响;[1] | 事实 |
| FY2027 Q1/自然年2026 Q3;截至2026-09-30(公司指引) | 集团89.85–90.95十亿美元不变;09-02新分部Agents and Infra75.15–75.75、Devices and Consumer14.7–15.2十亿美元。[13] | 公司指引16%—17% [5] | 公司未直接给总毛利率;收入和收入成本(COGS)指引分别89.85—90.95十亿美元与29.6—29.8十亿美元,不把独立范围误作配对利润率。[5] | 未直接给出;公司称营业利润率同比相对稳定,不是毛利率。[5] | 未发布GAAP每股收益区间;OpenAI投资影响不在其他损益指引内。[5] | 未发布非GAAP每股收益区间。[5] | GUIDANCE |
微软FY于6月30日结束:FY2026 Q1是2025年7—9月,FY2027 Q1是2026年7—9月;不可把财年季度等同自然年季度。[1][4][5]
更多依据与口径(7项)
四季度GAAP总毛利率均按毛利额÷收入计算,不是Microsoft Cloud毛利率;FY2026 Q4总毛利率67.20%,电话会Cloud口径约65%,不能混用。[1][5]
FY2026非GAAP每股收益17.28只排除OpenAI投资影响,并非剔除所有非经营项目:Q4仍有Anthropic投资收益3.2十亿美元;公司还说离散事项相较原指引带来每股0.27美元净利好,该0.27并非与非GAAP每股收益直接相减后的“标准化每股收益”。[1]
FY2027延长数据中心和办公楼预计使用年限影响折旧时点及融资/经营租赁分类。CY2026约175十亿美元 资本开支为调整分类后的自然年预期,不是FY2027全年资本开支;官方电话会未给出FY2027美元总额。[5]
FY2026 10-K补充现金桥:经营租赁付款6.443十亿美元、融资租赁利息等经营现金流2.547十亿美元已在经营现金流中,不重复扣;另列融资租赁本金3.101十亿美元,故66.987−3.101=63.886十亿美元,较FY2025同口径69.328下降7.85%。融资租赁新增使用权资产24.608十亿美元不是当期现金流出。[11] 公司称折旧年限变化对FY2027营业利润只有轻微利好,不夸大为大幅利润释放。[5]
09-02完整重列文件已取得:FY2026 Azure四季收入22.384/24.129/26.008/29.417十亿美元,全年101.938;上年四季16.021/17.337/18.540/20.712、全年72.610。M365 cloud四季23.694/24.466/25.418/26.721、全年100.299十亿美元。历史集团收入、每股收益与总毛利率不因分部变化改变。[20]
同口径严格自由现金流=经营现金流−现金购置固定资产(PP&E):FY2026 Q1 25.663、Q2 5.882、Q3 15.803、Q4 19.639十亿美元;同比+33.27%、−9.33%、−22.15%、−23.19%。末两季已跨作者20%警戒线,不能只保留“未来可能触发”。[1][2][3]
预警计算采用融资租赁本金前的可比严格自由现金流;全年融资租赁本金后63.886十亿美元是另一补充口径。FY2027重分类后应重建可比现金负担,不将融资转经营造成的列示变化误作改善。[19][20]
经营质量与资本配置
新口径需求桥:FY2026 Azure101.938十亿美元,Q4 29.417、同比42%;Agents and Infra Q4收入74.576、营业利润36.732十亿美元。旧Azure43%与新42%是划转定义差别,不是同口径下调。M365商业席位新口径包含GitHub,季度7%也不可与旧6%直接归因。[20]
更多依据与口径(14项)
商业剩余履约义务 678十亿美元、同比增84%,电话会称本季剩余履约义务环比增加全部来自前沿模型公司以外客户;这弱化单一客户叙事,但剩余履约义务跨多年、受合同期限及履约节奏影响,不能直接当下一年营收。Microsoft 365 Copilot超过3000万付费席位,席位并不披露独立利润。[1][5]
FY2026经营现金流182.935十亿美元,现金购置固定资产115.948十亿美元,自由现金流 66.987十亿美元;相比FY2025 自由现金流 71.611十亿美元下降6.46%。Q4经营现金流55.441十亿美元、现金购置固定资产(PP&E)35.802十亿美元,自由现金流19.639十亿美元,同比下降23.19%。利润增长不等于可分配现金增长。[1][6]
资产负债(06-30):现金及短期投资76.843十亿美元、借款40.294十亿美元,净现金36.549十亿美元仅是不含租赁口径。新核验经营租赁负债21.925、融资租赁负债66.594;若一并纳入,净负债约51.970十亿美元。此为补充压力口径,不与每股收益估值重复扣减。[1][11] 该账面现金/短期投资包含已识别受限短期投资3.8十亿美元,非完全自由流动性;详见本节补充。[19]
资本分配:全年现金流表回购22.271十亿美元、股权激励费用12.405十亿美元;年度稀释股数7.453十亿股对上年7.465十亿股仅减少0.16%。Q4含融资租赁资本开支约41十亿美元,而现金购置固定资产(PP&E)35.8十亿美元;把现金资本开支和含租赁资本开支串成一个增长序列会误读投资强度。[1][5]
FY2026 10-K补充现金桥:经营租赁付款6.443十亿美元、融资租赁利息等经营现金流2.547十亿美元已在经营现金流中,不重复扣;另列融资租赁本金3.101十亿美元,故66.987−3.101=63.886十亿美元,较FY2025同口径69.328下降7.85%。融资租赁新增使用权资产24.608十亿美元不是当期现金流出。[11]
06-30尚未开始租赁329.1十亿美元,主要数据中心,拟FY2027–FY2033启动,期限1–20年且部分附条件。已开始租赁FY2027未折现付款经营6.082、融资7.121十亿美元;长期承诺不是即期借款,也不是当年一次性现金到期,不能忽略未来必须承担的付款义务。[11]
09-03官方公告Astra在Foundry可用,说明微软同时是基础模型分销/算力承载者及应用提供者。研究判断:代理用量可能扩大Azure需求,也可能改变按席位收费;产品可用不等于新增收入、利润或市场份额已兑现。[14]
作者可比严格自由现金流预警已触发:FY2026 Q3、Q4分别同比−22.15%、−23.19%,满足“连续两季下降超过20%”这一分支;全年66.987十亿美元仍为正,不撤销OR条件。[1][2]
治理新增事实:09-09 IASJ提交PX14A6G,要求评估云/AI人权尽调有效性;其中对客户使用和法律风险的陈述为倡议方主张,不是SEC认定、司法裁决或已发生损失。研究监控合同限制、透明度和尽调成本,不编造诉讼负债。[22]
资本投入新增线索:09-10 Reuters转述Bloomberg知情人士称计划2032年前约38GW容量、当前约12GW;微软未立即回应。它不是公司正式资本开支指引或已开通容量;仍以FY2027 Q1超过50、CY2026约175十亿美元官方投资口径为基准。[23][20]
09-09会议二级报道补充部署效率:经营现金流称一年内dock-to-live时间缩短超过50%,说明硬件到可计费部署可能加快;这不是已经披露的AI项目投入资本回报率,也不是资本开支或集团指引上调。固定许可下用量成本与按消费收费机会须并看。[26]
补齐组件融资现金:FY2026其他投资净流出19.861十亿美元,FY2025为净流入2.317;MD&A称该项现金使用同比增加约22.2,主要用于协助采购组件。相关流动应收由8.2升至27.8十亿美元。19.861是本年净流出,22.2是同比变化,不能互换。[19]
66.987十亿美元严格自由现金流与扣融资租赁本金后的63.886均保留原定义;63.886不是完整可分配股东现金。再扣本年全部其他投资净流出19.861,可得44.025十亿美元广义现金负担敏感性;非公司自由现金流、非正常化现金,也不代表每一笔其他投资都属经常资本开支。需桥接供应商回款及未来固定资产确认,避免重复扣款。[19]
流动性限制:10-K称供应商协议受限投资11.3十亿美元,其中3.8在短期投资、7.5在股权及其他长期投资。账面净现金36.549含短期受限3.8;只扣这一已识别项目约为32.749,纳入已确认租赁后的对应净负债约55.770十亿美元。不可把不在76.843分子内的长期7.5再扣一次;受限不等于永久损失,也未证明其余资金全部可自由分配。[19]
估值
估值方法
经营驱动的未来一年标准化每股收益×作者市盈率情景;用已验证历史自由现金流收益率作现金质量校验,而非机械套当前GAAP盈利。
更多依据与口径(4项)
历史锚为FY2026收入331.839十亿美元、营业利润155.237十亿美元与每股收益17.95/非GAAP17.28。[1]
作者FY2027情景使用收入增8%/15%/22%、营业利润率43%/46%/48%、税率20%、股数7.50/7.45/7.40十亿股,其他损益假设为零。保守情景低于公司双位数增长指引,代表指引失效而非公司预测。[5]
本轮Yahoo抓取表给FY2027标准化每股收益19.75(33位、19.21–20.70)、FY2028 23.57(33位、20.93–26.00);页面同时有GAAP/Normalized标签、上年17.28,具体调整定义和估计更新时间未独立确认。页面行情510.12也不是本批09-10收盘492.44,不使用其顶部价格;列为检索所得但时点未证实快照,仅交叉检验。[24][25]
9月11日复核保留收入增长8%/15%/22%、营业率43%/46%/48%、22/28/34倍本报告假设,不因股价、重列或扩容报道提高锚。两季自由现金流预警已触发,意味着估值置信度受到现金反证约束,而非自动判为价值底部。[1][2][20][23]
| 情景 | 盈利/现金流输入 | 倍数/折现假设 | 价值输出 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 保守/下行 | 本报告情景:收入358.39十亿美元;增长8%、营业利润率43%;Azure/企业支出降速,折旧与租赁压利润;测算每股收益 16.44美元 | 市盈率假设(本报告设定) 22倍;税率20%、稀释股数7.50十亿股 | 361.64美元/股;较09-10常规收盘-26.56%(本报告情景,非目标价) |
| 基准 | 本报告情景:收入381.61十亿美元;增长15%、营业利润率46%;企业订阅与Azure维持扩张,效率覆盖多数新增成本;测算每股收益 18.85美元 | 市盈率假设(本报告设定) 28倍;税率20%、稀释股数7.45十亿股 | 527.81美元/股;较09-10常规收盘+7.18%(本报告情景,非目标价) |
| 乐观 | 本报告情景:收入404.84十亿美元;增长22%、营业利润率48%;Copilot付费和用量增长强于基础设施成本;测算每股收益 21.01美元 | 市盈率假设(本报告设定) 34倍;税率20%、稀释股数7.40十亿股 | 714.28美元/股;较09-10常规收盘+45.05%(本报告情景,非目标价) |
情景范围受经营与倍数双重假设支配,分部透明度不等于自由现金流改善。已触发的两季现金预警令基准价值不能直接转成买入结论。
更多依据与口径(3项)
09-10价格492.44美元,FY2026严格自由现金流/全年平均稀释股数/股价约1.83%;扣融资租赁本金后约1.74%。不是用当日总市值计算的精确收益率。[19][25]
66.987十亿美元严格自由现金流与扣融资租赁本金后的63.886均保留原定义;63.886不是完整可分配股东现金。再扣本年全部其他投资净流出19.861,可得44.025十亿美元广义现金负担敏感性;非公司自由现金流、非正常化现金,也不代表每一笔其他投资都属经常资本开支。需桥接供应商回款及未来固定资产确认,避免重复扣款。[19]
流动性限制:10-K称供应商协议受限投资11.3十亿美元,其中3.8在短期投资、7.5在股权及其他长期投资。账面净现金36.549含短期受限3.8;只扣这一已识别项目约为32.749,纳入已确认租赁后的对应净负债约55.770十亿美元。不可把不在76.843分子内的长期7.5再扣一次;受限不等于永久损失,也未证明其余资金全部可自由分配。[19]
当前价格需要怎样的盈利
09-10收盘492.44÷FY2026 GAAP17.95=27.43倍;÷仅排OpenAI的非GAAP17.28=28.50倍。与本次取得但更新时间未证实的FY2027 每股收益19.75机械相比为24.93倍,不能冒充可靠当日共识远期市盈率。[1][24][25]
技术面
2026-09-10常规收盘492.44美元;较2026-09-09收盘+0.16%。低于20日均线494.50;高于50日均线451.44;高于200日均线431.14。统计不构成投资价值判断。[25]
更多依据与口径(5项)
20日原始收盘回报+0.00%,末日成交量/此前20日均量0.73倍。20日观察区间477.15–517.78美元;60日349.20–517.78美元。不是保证支撑或压力。[25]
采用251个交易日原始close,非股息再投资总回报;拆股口径沿用行情供应商。不以量比推定机构净流或成本。[25]
尚缺数据:逐笔成交量加权均价(VWAP)、同业相对强弱、完整公司行动交叉核验、期权/借券定位与13F全量持仓。
09-10美国晚间38GW报道晚于常规收盘,不能将当日行情解释为对此消息的反应。[23][25]
行情价格:492.44 美元 · MSFT · 行情日期 2026-09-10 · 直接行情来源
| 20日简单移动平均线 | 50日简单移动平均线 | 200日简单移动平均线 | 20日低 / 高 | 60日低 / 高 | 20日回报(%) | 20日量比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 494.4965 | 451.4418 | 431.14 | 477.15 / 517.78 | 349.2 / 517.78 | 0.002 | 0.7323 |
计算口径:Yahoo 日线原始 close;均线为简单均线;未按股息再投资调整;窗口高低为观察区间,不是内在价值或保证有效支撑。量比=末日成交量/此前20个交易日均量。
更多依据与口径(2项)
样本交易日:251
行情证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260911/market/MSFT-raw.json
筹码 / 持仓结构
FY2026回购现金22.271、股权激励费用(SBC)12.405十亿美元,全年稀释均股7.453十亿股;同比仅缩0.16%,回购金额不是净增厚。年度均股并非09-10实时流通股。[1][19]
催化剂 / 近期大事
| 时间 / 确认状态 | 事件 | 事件性质 | 观察 / 论点影响 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | FY2026 Q4与全年业绩已发布 | 已发生 | 原口径Azure增长43%(09-02重列后42%)、剩余履约义务(RPO)678十亿美元和自由现金流(FCF)19.639十亿美元是否在下一季度持续形成收入与现金。[1][5][13] |
| 下一财季截至2026-09-30;发布日期未核验 | FY2027 Q1业绩及指引兑现检查 | 公司指引 | 09-02重列:集团收入89.85–90.95十亿美元未变,新Azure固定汇率44%–45%;资本开支(CapEx)超过50十亿美元,核对现金/租赁口径。[13] |
| 自FY2027开始(2026-07-01) | 资产预计使用年限与租赁分类调整 | 公司指引 | 寿命15延至25年、更多未来数据中心租赁转经营租赁;追踪折旧、经营租赁支付与现金资本开支(CapEx)总负担。[5] |
| 2025-09-12欧委会接受承诺;持续实施 | Teams解绑承诺执行 | 已发生 | 不含Teams套件折价、长期客户切换及互操作性要求是否影响企业每用户平均收入(ARPU)与留存。[7] |
| 2026-09-03 | Astra在Microsoft Foundry可用 | 已公告 | 追踪推理用量、单位现金回报及应用替代,而非将产品发布当收入兑现。[14] |
| 2026-09-02;09-11补齐完整金额表 | 分部及Azure历史收入重新核验 | 已披露 | Azure四季及新分部历史金额已填入,不再标“仅图片缺失”;集团Q1指引不变。[20] |
| 2026-09-09 | IASJ人权尽调豁免征集 | 股东倡议,非公司/法院认定 | 跟踪公司回应、表决及客户使用约束;不预先计法律损失。[22] |
| 2026-09-10美国晚间(常规收盘后) | 38GW数据中心计划报道 | Reuters转述Bloomberg,未获微软即时回应 | 等官方确认、开通节奏、投资回报与租赁义务;不改已确认资本开支(CapEx)指引。[23] |
| 2026-09-09 | Goldman会议:部署效率与混合定价 | 已发生;取得二级完整报道,非原始转录 | 核对部署效率如何转为Azure收入和现金;席位加消费定价能否覆盖推理成本,不能把管理层说法当已实现ROI。[26] |
下行情景详解
已有基准
FY2026严格自由现金流(FCF)66.987十亿美元,同比−6.46%;租赁本金后63.886十亿美元,同比−7.85%。FY2026 Q3/Q4可比严格自由现金流(FCF)均同比下降超过20%,作者预警现已成立。[1][2][19]
可观察触发条件:区分公司指引与研究预警
作者预警:FY2027 Q1收入低于89.85十亿美元,或新口径Azure固定汇率低于40%(新公司指引44%–45%)。旧口径约45%不能作同口径变化比较。[13]
更多依据与口径(3项)
作者可比严格自由现金流(FCF)预警已触发:FY2026 Q3、Q4分别同比−22.15%、−23.19%,满足“连续两季下降超过20%”这一分支;全年66.987十亿美元仍为正,不撤销OR条件。[1][2] 逻辑固定为(连续两个可比季度严格自由现金流(FCF)同比下降超过20%)OR(全年严格自由现金流(FCF)为负);不是AND,也不是要求两项同时成立。
作者预警:FY2027营业利润率同比下滑超过2个百分点;公司预期全年下降不足1个百分点。不要把租赁分类变化带来的资本开支(CapEx)下降误判为经营改善。[5]
Teams解绑削弱每用户平均收入(ARPU)、PC库存调整扩散、或大客户履约延迟,将削弱基准假设;法律承诺与PC需求风险已在官方材料披露。[5][7]
经营 → 盈利 / 现金 → 估值传导
Azure/Copilot利用率或付费转化不及预期 → 云收入增速回落 → 高折旧和租赁形成营业利润率压力 → 自由现金流(FCF)与每股收益(EPS)同时走弱。[1][5]
租赁从融资转经营并不消除付款义务;现金收益率偏低时,市场可同时压低增长预期与市盈率(P/E),构成业绩和估值双击。[5]
假设敏感性:不是价格底部
原作者下行:收入331.839×1.08、营业率43%、税率20%、股数7.50十亿股,每股收益(EPS)16.4389×22=361.64美元;较基准低31.48%,较09-10收盘-26.56%。更差资本回报仍可能跌破,非底价。
下次披露如何确认 / 推翻
下一FY2027 Q1同时核对新口径Azure44%–45%固定汇率指引、现金购置固定资产(PP&E)、融资租赁本金和经营租赁支付;已触发的两季现金预警须由后续可比现金改善来修复,不能因全年自由现金流(FCF)尚为正自动解除。另看人权尽调提案回应和38GW报道是否获正式确认。[19][20][22] 增加组件融资应收、其他投资现金净流出及供应商受限投资的回款/固定资产桥,不能仅以租赁本金后现金判断股东可分配能力。[19]
论点监控
| 监控指标 | 升级条件 | 失效信号 | 复核频率 | 直接来源 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azure增长与收入兑现 | 新口径Azure固定汇率增长达到44%–45%且集团收入不低于指引中枢 | 作者阈值:Azure固定汇率低于40%或集团收入跌破89.85十亿美元(与downside保持OR) | 每季 | [13] |
| 可比严格自由现金流(FCF)(预警已触发) | 后续可比严格自由现金流(FCF)恢复增长且租赁现金负担不被重分类掩盖 | 连续两季同比下降>20% OR 全年转负;FY2026 Q3/Q4第一分支已满足 | 每季及年报 | [1][2][19] |
| 营业利润率 | FY2027下降不足1个百分点并有稳定Cloud毛利 | 作者阈值:全年下降超过2个百分点 | 每季 | [5] |
| 每股回报与套件每用户平均收入(ARPU) | 股权激励费用(SBC)受控、股数下降且解绑后企业订阅仍稳健 | 股数明显增加同时企业云增速低于预期 | 每季 | [1][7] |
投资框架判断
框架判断,不代表投资大师本人观点。
更多依据与口径(3项)
巴菲特框架:新披露Azure101.938十亿美元说明业务规模,不等于所有者现金。租赁本金后63.886和两季严格自由现金流(FCF)跌逾20%削弱现金质量;Pass/观察,中置信度。[19][20][1] 组件融资其他投资净流出与受限投资进一步限制股东现金,63.886十亿美元不能作为完整可分配现金。[19]
芒格框架:最强反证已经出现——经营增长与自由现金流(FCF)背离。逆向失败是低利用率、长期租赁和客户合规成本同时上升;38GW仍是报道,不把规模承诺当护城河收益。[2][22][23] 会议中固定许可用量会增加成本的陈述,是对“AI付费自动高利润”叙事的额外反证。[26]
段永平框架:生意可理解,人/治理需核验尽调回应,价格不能修复低资本回报。作者情景不随媒体计划上调;三框架共同维持Pass,先验证可比现金回收,不代表投资者本人意见。[19][22]
缺失数据与影响
最新完整13F、Form 4全量经济净流、借券空头和期权仓位仍缺;已逐笔辨识Smith赠与,不能代表全部内部人。[18][21]
更多依据与口径(5项)
本轮Yahoo估计表有分析师数但无独立更新时点、完整标准化定义;历史8月快照仅留证据,不作为当前共识。[24]
FY2027 Q1发布日期未在此次检查材料确认;09-09Goldman原始转录受限,已改取Markets Daily二级完整报道,部署和定价说法已分级使用,不将其冒充官方新增财务指引。[26]
已补齐09-02完整分部/产品历史重列;剩余缺口为维持性与增长性资本开支(CapEx)、AI单位投入资本回报率(ROIC)、未来租赁可比分类桥及38GW报道的官方确认。[19][20][23]
季度融资租赁本金可比拆分未本次完整重建;已触发预警专指经营现金流(OCF)−现金购置固定资产(PP&E),不将其伪称季度租赁本金后自由现金流(FCF)。[1][2]
组件融资应收回款、其他投资现金与未来固定资产确认仍未构成完整逐期桥;受限供应商投资不等于可自由分红资金,完整股东现金估值待补证。[19]
紧凑证据索引
发布日期:2026-07-29
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/003_Microsoft/source_01.txt
Revenue was $90.0 billion and increased 18% (up 17% in constant currency) · Operating income was $40.6 billion and increased 18% · Net income was $35.8 billion and increased 31% on a GAAP basis, and was $35.3 billion and increased 22% on a non-GAAP basis · Diluted earnings per share was $4.81 and increased 32% on a GAAP basis, and was $4.74 and increased 23% on a non-GAAP basis · Non-GAAP results exclude the impact from investments in OpenAI, explained in the Non-GAAP Definition section below Several discrete items impacted our financial results in the quarter when compared to our forward-looking guidance provided on April 29, 2026, resu
发布日期:2026-04-29
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/003_Microsoft/source_02.txt
Revenue was $82.9 billion and increased 18% (up 15% in constant currency) · Operating income was $38.4 billion and increased 20% (up 16% in constant currency) · Net income was $31.8 billion and increased 23% on a GAAP basis, and increased 20% (up 18% in constant currency) on a non-GAAP basis · Diluted earnings per share was $4.27 and increased 23% on a GAAP basis, and increased 21% (up 18% in constant currency) on a non-GAAP basis · Non-GAAP results exclude the impact from investments in OpenAI, explained in the Non-GAAP Definition section below “We are focused on delivering cloud and AI infrastructure and solutions that empower every busines
发布日期:2026-01-28
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/003_Microsoft/source_03.txt
Diluted earnings per share on a GAAP basis was $5.16 and increased 60%, and on a non-GAAP basis was $4.14 and increased 24% (up 21% in constant currency) · Non-GAAP results exclude the impact from investments in OpenAI, explained in the Non-GAAP Definition section below “We are only at the beginning phases of AI diffusion and already Microsoft has built an AI business that is larger than some of our biggest franchises," said Satya Nadella, chairman and chief executive officer of Microsoft. “We are pushing the frontier across our entire AI stack to drive new value for our customers and partners.” “Microsoft Cloud revenue crossed $50 billion
发布日期:2025-10-29
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/003_Microsoft/source_04.txt
Revenue was $77.7 billion and increased 18% (up 17% in constant currency) · Operating income was $38.0 billion and increased 24% (up 22% in constant currency) · Net income, on a GAAP basis, was $27.7 billion and increased 12%, and on a non-GAAP basis was $30.8 billion and increased 22% (up 21% in constant currency) · Diluted earnings per share, on a GAAP basis, was $3.72 and increased 13%, and on a non-GAAP basis was $4.13 and increased 23% (up 21% in constant currency) · Non-GAAP results exclude the impact from investments in OpenAI, explained in the Non-GAAP Definition section below “Our planet-scale cloud and AI factory, together with Copi
发布日期:2026-07-29
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/003_Microsoft/source_05.txt
Therefore, at the total company level, revenue should be between $89.85 and $90.95 billion or growth of 16% to 17% with accelerating commercial growth partially offset by the impact from the PC market dynamics noted earlier. We expect COGS of $29.6 to $29.8 billion, or growth of 23% to 24%. And operating expense of $16.8 to $16.9 billion or growth of 7% to 8% driven by continued investment in R&D compute capacity and talent. Operating margins should be relatively flat year-over-year. Excluding any impact from our investments in OpenAI, other income and expense is expected to be roughly negative $100 million as interest income will be more tha
发布日期:日期未确认
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/003_Microsoft/source_06.txt
Total revenue 281,724 245,122 211,915 Cost of revenue: Product 13,501 15,272 17,804 Service and other 74,330 58,842 48,059 Total cost of revenue 87,831 74,114 65,863 Gross margin 193,893 171,008 146,052 Research and development 32,488 29,510 27,195 Sales and marketing 25,654 24,456 22,759 General and administrative 7,223 7,609 7,575 Operating income 128,528 109,433 88,523 Other income (expense), net (4,901) (1,646) 788 Income before income taxes 123,627 107,787 89,311 Provision for income taxes 21,795 19,651 16,950 Net income $ 101,832 $ 88,136 $ 72,361 Earnings per share: Basic $ 13.70 $ 11.86 $ 9.72 Diluted $ 13.64 $ 11.80 $ 9.68 Weighted a
发布日期:2025-09-12
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/003_Microsoft/source_07.txt
The European Commission has accepted commitments from Microsoft to address EU competition concerns relating to its popular team collaboration platform Teams. These commitments will henceforth be legally binding under EU antitrust rules. The commitments address the Commission's concerns related to the tying of Microsoft Teams to the company's popular productivity applications Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Outlook, included in its Office 365 and Microsoft 365 suites for business customers. Under the commitments, Microsoft will (i) make available versions of these suites without Teams and at a reduced price; (ii) allow customers with long-term lice
发布日期:日期未确认
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/003_Microsoft/source_10.txt
| Avg. Estimate | 4.71 | 4.82 | 19.7 | 23.55 | | Low Estimate | 4.43 | 4.66 | 18.93 | 20.93 | | High Estimate | 4.83 | 5.02 | 20.7 | 26 | | Year Ago EPS | 4.13 | 4.14 | 17.28 | 19.7 | ### Earnings History | Currency in USD | 9/30/2025 | 12/31/2025 | 3/31/2026 | 6/30/2026 | |---|---|---|---|---| | EPS Est. | 3.66 | 3.92 | 4.07 | 4.24 | | EPS Actual | 4.13 | 4.14 | 4.27 | 4.74 | | Difference | 0.47 | 0.22 | 0.2 | 0.5 | | Surprise % | 12.73% | 5.69% | 4.90% | 11.81% | ### EPS Trend | Currency in USD | Current Qtr. (Sep 2026) | Next Qtr. (Dec 2026) | Current Year (2027) | Next Year (2028) | |---|---|---|---|---| | Current Estimate | 4.71 | 4.
发布日期:2026-07-29
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260909/evidence/003_Microsoft/latest_10k.txt
Supplemental cash flow information related to leases was as follows: (In millions) Year Ended June 30, 2026 2025 2024 Cash paid for amounts included in the measurement of lease liabilities: Operating cash flows from operating leases $ 6,443 $ 4,931 $ 3,550 Operating cash flows from finance leases 2,547 1,372 734 Financing cash flows from finance leases 3,101 2,283 1,286 Right-of-use assets obtained in exchange for lease obligations: Operating leases 4,555 7,826 6,703 Finance leases 24,608 20,511 11,633 Supplemental balance sheet information related to leases was as follows: (In millions, except lease term and discount rate) June 30, 2026 2025 Operating Leases Operating lease right-of-use assets $ 24,177 $ 24,823 Other current liabilities $ 5,393 $ 5,424 Operating lease liabilities 16,532 17,437 Total operating lease liabilities $ 21,925 $ 22,861 Finance Leases Property and equipment, at cost $ 82,712 $ 53,876 Accumulated depreciation ( 15,431 ) ( 9,861 ) Property and equipment, net $ 67,281 $ 44,015 Other current liabilities $ 4,290 $ 3,172 Other long-term liabilities 62,304 43,000 Total finance lease liabilities $ 66,594 $ 46,172 Weighted Average Remaining Lease Term Operating leases 6 years 6 years Finance leases 13 years 13 years Weighted Average Discount Rate Operating leases 3.7 % 3.5 % Finance leases 4.5 % 4.2 % The following table outlines maturities of our lease liabilities as of June 30, 2026: (In millions) Year Ending June 30, Operating Leases Finance Leases 2027 $ 6,082 $ 7,121 2028 4,334 7,294 2029 3,146 6,668 2030 2,612 6,570 2031 2,316 6,543 Thereafter 6,216 55,490 Total lease payments 24,706 89,686 Less imputed interest ( 2,781 ) ( 23,092 ) Total $ 21,925 $
发布日期:2026-09-02
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260909/evidence/003_Microsoft/recent_8k.txt
On September 2, 2026, Microsoft Corporation (the “Company”) posted presentation materials to its Investor Relations website titled “FY27 Segments and Investor Metrics” announcing a change in reportable segments and investor metrics. Beginning in fiscal year 2027, the Company will manage its operations under this updated reporting structure and report its financial performance based on two reportable segments: (1) Agents and Infra and (2) Devices and Consumer. A copy of the presentation materials is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The exhibit furnished on this report under Regulation FD provides a description of our updated reporting structure and presents summary financial information and historical data on a basis consistent with the updated reporting structure. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, includin
发布日期:2026-09-02
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260909/evidence/003_Microsoft/segments_exhibit.txt
FY27 Q1 Outlook We will report our FY27 Q1 results in the structure discussed on the prior slides. Therefore, we have provided mechanical adjustments only to our outlook as provided on July 29, 2026, for the changes discussed in this presentation. As provided on July 29, 2026 Foreign currency impact Decrease to total revenue growth by less than 1 point, with roughly 1 point in Productivity and Business Processes, less than 1 point in Intelligent Cloud, and no meaningful impact in More Personal Computing No meaningful impact to COGS or operating expense growth Total Company Revenue of $89.85 to $90.95 billion Productivity and Business Processes Revenue of $36.7 to $37.0 billion Intelligent Cloud Revenue of $40.95 to $41.25 billion More Personal Computing Revenue of $12.2 to $12.7 billion Cost of revenue COGS of $29.6 to $29.8 billion Operating expenses Expenses of $16.8 to $16.9 billion Other income and expense Expected to be roughly $(100) million excluding any impact from our investments in OpenAI Operating margin Expected to remain relatively flat year-over-year Effective tax rate Approximately 20% Capital expenditures Expected to be over $50 billion including the impact of the useful life update Adjusted Outlook Foreign currency impact Decrease to total revenue growth by less than 1 point, with roughly 1 point in Agents and Infra, and no meaningful impact in Devices and Consumer No meaningful impact to COGS or operating expense growth Total Company No change to outlook Agents and Infra Revenue of $75.15 to $75.75 billion Devices and Consumer Revenue of $14.7 to $15.2 billion Cost of revenue No change to outlook Operating expenses No change to outlook Other income and expense No change to outlook Operating margin No change to outlook Effective tax rate No change to outlook Capital expenditures No change to outlook  FY27 Q1 Outlook Detail As provided July 29, 2026 Commercial Business Commercial bookings Healthy growth on a growing expiry base when adjusted for OpenAI contracts in the prior year Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage Relatively stable quarter-over-quarter Productivity and Business Processes Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud revenue Growth of approximately 15% in constant currency Growth of approximately 16% in constant currency when adjusting for prior-year in-period revenue recognition Microsoft 365 Commercial products revenue Growth in mid-single digits Microsoft 365 Consumer cloud revenue Growth in the mid-teens LinkedIn revenue Growth in high-single digits Dynamics 365 revenue Growth in low-teens Intelligent Cloud Azure and other cloud services revenue Growth of approximately 45% in constant curr
发布日期:2026-09-03
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260909/evidence/003_Microsoft/astra_full.txt
The next era of enterprise AI will not be defined by chat experiences. It will be defined by how well a model can work for and with you. GPT-6 Astra , OpenAI’s newest frontier model, is now generally available for all customers in Microsoft Foundry . It is designed to help organizations make decisions for complex work and execute across the applications and systems where your business operates. We are investing to make it easier for customers to use advanced technology like Astra. AI initiatives often slow down on identity, networking, governance, data handling, evaluation, and compliance. Microsoft Foundry brings these fundamentals together in Azure, helping teams move from experimentation to production with speed and trust. Turn open-ended goals into action Astra is built to take an open
发布日期:2026-09-08
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260909/evidence/003_Microsoft/reuters_kitco_excerpt.txt
Salesforce (CRM.N), and Intuit (INTU.O), fell about 4%, while ServiceNow (NOW.N), lost 5%. OpenAI's launch last week of its newest model, GPT-6 Astra, reignited speculation that AI could compete with services now offered by specialized software companies. The S&P 500 software and services index (.SPLRCIS), fell 1.4%, down for a second straight day. "Astra has kind of reignited the software disruption fears and it's resumed that old trend that we got used to for a while, where semiconductor stocks and data center capex beneficiaries do well, while software stocks do poorly," said Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio man
发布日期:2026-09-09(检索日,非每项申报日)
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260909/evidence/003_Microsoft/direct_submissions.txt
"filings": { "recent": { "accessionNumber": [ "0000789019-26-000186", "0000789019-26-000185", "0000789019-26-000184", "0000789019-26-000183", "0000789019-26-000182", "0000789019-26-000181", "0000789019-26-000180", "0000789019-26-000179", "0000789019-26-000178", "0000789019-26-000177", "0000789019-26-000176", "0000789019-26-000175", "0000789019-26-000161", "0001193125-26-380280", "0000789019-26-000159", "0000789019-26-000158", "0000789019-26-000157",
发布日期:2026-09-11
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260911/evidence/003_Microsoft/submissions.txt
"filings":{"recent":{"accessionNumber":["0000789019-26-000188","0001214659-26-011511","0000789019-26-000186","0000789019-26-000185","0000789019-26-000184","0000789019-26-000183","0000789019-26-000182","0000789019-26-000181","0000789019-26-000180","0000789019-26-000179","0000789019-26-000178","0000789019-26-000177","0000789019-26-000176","0000789019-26-000175","0000789019-26-000161","0001193125-26-380280","0000789019-26-000159","0000789019-26-000158","0000789019-26-000157","0000789019-26-000156","0000789019-26-000155","0000789019-26-000154","0000789019-26-000153","0001950047-26-008927","0000789019-26-000145","0000789019-26-000143","0000789019-26-000141","0001959173-26-005674","0001959173-26-005608","0001193125-26-323660","0001193125-26-323632","0001214659-26-008806","0000789019-26-000139","0001214659-26-008121","0000789019-26-000137","0001193125-26-282817","0001193125-26-282773","0000789019-26-000135","0000789019-26-000133","0000789019-26-000131","0000789019-26-000130","0000789019-26-000129","0000789019-26-000128","0000789019-26-000127","0000789019-26-000126","0000789019-26-000125","0
发布日期:2026-07-29
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260911/evidence/003_Microsoft/latest_10k.txt
Supplemental cash flow information related to leases was as follows: (In millions) Year Ended June 30, 2026 2025 2024 Cash paid for amounts included in the measurement of lease liabilities: Operating cash flows from operating leases $ 6,443 $ 4,931 $ 3,550 Operating cash flows from finance leases 2,547 1,372 734 Financing cash flows from finance leases 3,101 2,283 1,286 Right-of-use assets obtained in exchange for lease obligations: Operating leases 4,555 7,826 6,703 Finance leases 24,608 20,511 11,633 Supplemental balance sheet information related to leases was as follows: (In millions, except lease term and discount rate) June 30, 2026 2025 Operating Leases Operating lease right-of-use assets $ 24,177 $ 24,823 Other current liabilities $ 5,393 $ 5,424 Operating lease liabilities 16,532 17,437 Total operating lease liabilities $ 21,925 $ 22,861 Finance Leases Property and equipment, at cost $ 82,712 $ 53,876 Accumulated depreciation (15,431 ) (9,861 ) Property and equipment, net $ 67,281 $ 44,015 Other current liabilities $ 4,290 $ 3,172 Other long-term liabilities 62,304 43,000 Total finance lease liabilities $ 66,594 $ 46,172 Weighted Average Remaining Lease Term Operating leases 6 years 6 years Finance leases 13 years 13 years Weighted Average Discount Rate Operating leases 3.7% 3.5% Finance leases 4.5% 4.2% The following table outlines maturities of our lease liabilities as of June 30, 2026: (In millions) Year Ending June 30, Operating Leases Finance Leases 2027 $ 6,082 $ 7,121 2028 4,334 7,294 2029 3,146 6,668 2030 2,612 6,570 2031 2,316 6,543 Thereafter 6,216 55,490 Total lease payments 24,706 89,686 Less imputed interest (2,781 ) (23,092 ) Total $ 21,925 $ 66,594 As of June 30, 2026, we had additional leases, primarily for datacenters, that had not yet commenced of $329.1 billion, with some arrangements subject to certain contractual conditions being met. These leases will commence between fiscal year 2027 and fiscal year 2033 with lease terms of 1 year to 20 years. 78 PART II Item 8 NOTE 14 — CONTINGENCIES Irish Data Protection Commission Matter In 2018
发布日期:2026-09-02
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260911/evidence/003_Microsoft/segments_exhibit.txt
Restated Historical Financials FY27 Q1 Adjusted Outlook Our updated segment reporting Satya Nadella, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Microsoft There’s no question AI represents a profound shift in both technology and business. It is changing what we build and how we operate, and it is blurring the boundaries between our products and reshaping our business models. To reflect this and provide increased transparency to investors, we are updating our financial reporting to mirror how the business is operating, how we allocate resources, and where we are headed. Beginning with FY27, we will transition from our current three reporting segments, Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing, to two segments: Agents and Infra and Devices and Consumer. Within each of these segments, you will have full transparency of quarterly revenue across each of our key businesses, including Azure, M365 Cloud, Industry solutions, and ads. We will continue to focus on security, quality, and innovation in everything we do. We want every organization to own its own continuous learning loop so it retains its core IP, and to ensure AI empowers every person, amplifying their agency and ambition. That is what we mean by a frontier ecosystem, ensuring value flows and accrues across people, companies, industries, and countries, thereby leading to broad-based economic growth. As we build this ecosystem, the layers of our stack are not separate opportunities but reinforce each other. Investing in one strengthens the others and allows us to deliver customer value in a differentiated way. Our updated segment reporting Satya Nadella, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Microsoft Our Agents and Infra segment brings together our high-value apps and agents, including Microsoft 365 and GitHub, our multi-model system grounded in rich-enterprise context, and global-scale Azure infrastructure. Under this reporting structure, Azure becomes more purely our consumption-based platform and infrastructure business. Microsoft 365 Cloud brings together our high-value apps and agents across knowledge work, code, and security (Security has largely been part of this business already; the new structure makes that alignment clearer). We are also bringing together the reporting of all our business process solutions as part of the new Industry solutions metric. This integrated architecture across agents and infra is how we think about engaging with customers and driving their outcomes, building products, and monetization. It’s no longer about building or selling one app or service, but about connecting the entire trajectory of a “job to be done.” This expands our opportunity across every layer of the stack, from apps and agents that compress and complete tasks, workflows, and processes; to model systems that power agent reasoning and actions; to infrastructure that trains and serves those models and agent loops in the most efficient way. Our Devices and Consumer segment is where we bring ubiquitous intelligence to billions of people every day, with expansive TAMs across search and advertising, XBOX, and Windows. This reporting structure brings our advertising businesses together better reflecting their shared economics and the increasingly connected experiences across search, browsing, content discovery, and transactions. Across our tech stack, business models, and go-to-market, we are well positioned to generate high returns on invested capital because of the built-in diversification of our businesses, architectural coherence of our stack, and operational synergies. I have never been more confident in the opportunity ahead. Thank you for your continued investment in Microsoft. Satya Segment Structure We will transition to two reporting segments for FY27. Agents and Infra will include the Microsoft Cloud, productivity and server licensing, and our consulting and support businesses. Devices and Consumer will include our Windows, XBOX, and advertising businesses. With these segment changes and to provide transparency to investors, we are updating our product and services reporting definitions to better represent the businesses as we manage them today, which will be used in our SEC filings going forward. Agents and Infra Azure has been updated to reflect the move of GitHub cloud and other developer cloud services as well as Security Copilot to Microsoft 365 cloud. Healthcare and Life Sciences cloud will move to the new Industry solutions cloud metric. Microsoft 365 cloud now brings together our productivity, developer, and security app offerings across commercial and consumer including: Microsoft 365 commercial cloud will now include GitHub cloud and other developer cloud services as well as Security Copilot which were previously reported in Azure Microsoft 365 consumer cloud is unchanged Productivity and server licensing brings together licensing offerings across our products including: Server products now excludes the on-premises portion of GitHub and other developer services which has moved to Microsoft 365 commercial products as well as the on-premises portion of the Healthcare and Life Sciences business which has moved to Industry Solutions Microsoft 365 commercial products will now include the on-premises portion of GitHub and other developer services which were previously reported in Server products Microsoft 365 consumer products was previously reported as Office consumer products, but is otherwise unchanged Industry solutions brings together our vertical commercial offerings across Dynamics, LinkedIn, and Healthcare including: Industry solutions cloud, which is formed from Dynamics 365, LinkedIn Talent Solutions and Sales Solutions, previously reported in LinkedIn, and Healthcare and Life Sciences cloud, previously reported in Azure Industry solutions products, which is the on-premises portion of these businesses Frontier and support services was previously reported as Enterprise and Partner services, but is otherwise unchanged FY27 Segment changes and resulting new product and service reporting updates The product and service offerings referenced above will be reported in our SEC filings Devices and Consumer Search and advertising brings together our advertising businesses by adding LinkedIn Marketing Solutions, along with LinkedIn Premium Subscriptions, to the prior S
发布日期:2026-09-10
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260911/evidence/003_Microsoft/form4_sep10.txt
X0609 4 2026-09-09 0000789019 MICROSOFT CORP MSFT 0001193119 SMITH BRADFORD L false C/O MICROSOFT CORPORATION ONE MICROSOFT WAY REDMOND WA 98052-6399 0 1 0 0 Vice Chair and President 0 Common Stock 2026-09-09 4 G 0 14000 0 D 444716.2944 D Julia Stark, Attorney-in-Fact for Bradford L. Smith 2026-09-10
发布日期:2026-09-09
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260911/evidence/003_Microsoft/proxy_advocacy.txt
United States Securities and Exchange Commission Washington, D.C. 20549 Notice of Exempt Solicitation Pursuant to Rule Rule 14a-6(g) Name of the Registrant: Microsoft Corporation Name of persons relying on exemption: Investor Advocates for Social Justice Address of persons relying on exemption: Investor Advocates for Social Justice, 40 S Fullerton Ave. Montclair, NJ 07042 Written materials are submitted pursuant to Rule 14a-6(g)(1) promulgated under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. In accordance with Rule 14a-6(g)(1)m, submission is required of this filer under the terms of the Rule because the co-filers of the related shareholder proposal own beneficially securities of the class which is the subject of the solicitation with a market value of over $5 million. This is not a solicitation of authority to vote your proxy, nor does the information contained within constitute investment advice. Please DO NOT send your proxy card; the filer is not able to vote your proxies, nor does this communication contemplate such an event. Attachment (below): Investor Briefing: Too Little, Too Late – Microsoft has a due diligence problem. Here’s why investors should be concerned. TOO LITTLE,TOO LATE.Microsoft has a due diligence problem.Here's why investors should be concerned. 11Microsoft recognizes that certain products, customers, andjurisdictions carry elevated risk, but journalistic investigations suggestineffective HRDD.A pattern of allegations about Microsoft's complicity in human rightsviolations in Israel, China, Saudi Arabia, and the US suggests systemicissues with the Company's HRDD practices.Microsoft's investigations are reactive, narrow, and non-transparent. Its recent decision to suspend cloud services related to Israelisurveillance confirms the inadequacy of existing processes.The same HRDD proposal, filed last year, received over 26%shareholder support, and Microsoft has not adequately addressed it. Last year, 59 filers representing just over $80 million in MSFT stock filed the shareholder proposal for the first time.1On July 1, 2026, 56 Microsoft shareholders, collectively representing more than $300 millionin MSFT shares, refiled a shareholder proposal for the 2026 shareholder meeting. Theproposal calls on Microsoft to publish a report assessing the effectiveness of its humanrights due diligence (HRDD) processes. It requests that Microsoft evaluate whether itsArtificial Intelligence (AI) and cloud technologies are being misused by customers, such asmilitary entities, to commit human rights abuses or violations of international humanitarianlaw. The proposal was filed for the first time last year, and at the 2025 Annual GeneralMeeting (AGM), it received over 26% support, highlighting significant investor concern.This briefing outlines various allegations and a finding of human rights violations related to Microsoft. It raises questions about the Company's HRDD practices and the adequacy ofexisting external reviews and demonstrates why supporting the resolution is necessary toprotect shareholder value. SUMMARYKEY ISSUES11 Financial Risk: Potential loss of revenue or increased cost of capital;potential portfolio impacts for investors due to S&P 500 weighting.Legal and Regulatory Risk: Potential financial liability for the Companyunder EU laws; GDPR complaint filed against Microsoft; potentialcriminal liability for the Company and its executives for complicity inhuman rights violations.Operational Risk: Controversy impacts key talent recruitment andretention; distracts senior management from core business.Reputational Risk: Microsoft named by UN Special Rapporteur asprofiting from, and therefore complicit in, war crimes and genocide inGaza ; risk of eroding public and customer trust. 2In June 2026, Microsoft confirmed that the Israeli military had used its cloud to store masssurveillance data on Palestinians. This followed Microsoft's September 2025 decision tosuspend a specific Israeli military unit's use of certain technol
发布日期:2026-09-10
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260911/evidence/003_Microsoft/capacity_full.txt
Sept 10 (Reuters) – Microsoft plans to build out its data-center capacity to about 38 gigawatts by 2032, more than triple its current footprint, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. Here are some details: • According to the report only about 2 gigawatts of the company’s current 12-gigawatt capacity is centered on AI-specific chips, a share expected to grow to about a third of the 38 gigawatts it plans to have online. • Microsoft did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. • Technology companies have been pouring billions of dollars into data centers to power generative AI services such as ChatGPT and Copilot, which require huge amounts of computing power. • In July, Microsoft forecast stronger-than-expected cloud growth offering fresh evidence that Microsoft’s massive AI investments are beginning to pay off, helping ease investor concerns that heavy spending on data centers and computing infrastructure could outpace demand. • Microsoft expects capital expenditures of $50 billion for the fiscal first quarter of 2027 and $175 billion for the 2026 calendar year. • The company is planning to spread long-term leases on data centers over 25 years rather than 15, which has the effect of lowering its annual rep
发布日期:2026-09-11(检索日)
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260911/evidence/003_Microsoft/consensus_yahoo.txt
| Currency in USD | Current Qtr. (Sep 2026) | Next Qtr. (Dec 2026) | Current Year (2027) | Next Year (2028) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | No. of Analysts | 38 | 37 | 49 | 51 | | Avg. Estimate | 90.67B | 95.53B | 391.08B | 467.33B | | Low Estimate | 89.64B | 93.53B | 380B | 433.18B | | High Estimate | 92.66B | 98.41B | 402.72B | 503B | | Year Ago Sales | 77.67B | 81.27B | 331.84B | 391.08B | | Sales Growth (year/est) | 16.73% | 17.55% | 17.85% | 19.50% | gaap GAAP nongaap Normalized | Currency in USD | Current Qtr. (Sep 2026) | Next Qtr. (Dec 2026) | Current Year (2027) | Next Year (2028) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | No. of Analysts | 25 | 25 | 33 | 33 | | Avg. Estimate | 4.72 | 4.83 | 19.75 | 23.57 | | Low Estimate | 4.43 | 4.72 | 19.21 | 20.93 | | High Estimate | 4.83 | 5.02 | 20.7 | 26 | | Year Ago EPS | 4.13 | 4.14 | 17.28 | 19.75 | gaap GAAP nongaap Normalized | Currency in USD | 9/30/2025 | 12/31/2025 | 3/31/2026 | 6/30/2026 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EPS Est. | 3.66 | 3.92 | 4.07 | 4.24 | | EPS Actual | 4.13 | 4.14 | 4.27 | 4.74 | | Difference | 0.47 | 0.22 | 0.2 | 0.5 | | Surprise % | 12.73% | 5.69% | 4.90% | 11.81% | gaap GAAP nongaap Normalized | Currency in USD | Current Qtr. (Sep 2026) | Next Qtr. (Dec 2026) | Current Year (2027) | Next Year (2028) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cur
发布日期:2026-09-10
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260911/market/MSFT-raw.json
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发布日期:2026-09-09
证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260911/evidence/003_Microsoft/goldman_recovered.txt
Azure Capacity and Infrastructure Efficiency On Azure, Hood said the company remains focused on bringing capacity online and making hardware “revenue ready” more quickly. She said the company has reduced “dock-to-live” times by more than 50% over the course of a year, referring to the time needed to move hardware from delivery to revenue-generating deployment. Efficiency work extends from physical infrastructure through software and application layers, Hood said. Improving throughput and reducing deployment times enables Microsoft to convert capital spending into revenue faster, with the impact generally reflected in Azure results during the quarter. Hood distinguished between long-lived investments, such as construction and leases, and shorter-term capital expenditures driven by demand. She said the short-term priority is less about adjusting spending by a particular dollar amount and more about getting available supply into the system faster. For longer-term capacity, Microsoft has entered long-term agreements across its supply chain to secure what Hood called “full sets” of required equipment and components. She also said companies need to focus on positive local community impacts as they pursue data-center projects. On internal semiconductors, Hood said Microsoft’s strategy is to maintain competitive price-performance through a mix of internally designed and third-party components. She noted that the company’s Cobalt CPU will be deployed in roughly 25 data centers over the year and said Microsoft was encouraged by benchmarks released for its Maia chips. Pricing, Copilot and AI Monetization Hood said Microsoft is moving toward a mix of user-based and consumption-based pricing across parts of its software portfolio. User licenses remain important because customers value budget predictability, she said, while consumption pricing is better suited for AI services tied to units of work or measurable outcomes. The company recently made changes to GitHub pricing, and Hood said the experience reinforced that users are willing to pay more when a high-quality product meaningfully improves productivity. At the same time, she said customers need controls, measurement and observability to manage consumption-based spending. Regarding Copilot, Hood said higher usage can raise costs within fixed-price user licenses, but Microsoft has historically managed rising service costs through efficiency and productivity improvements. The company also aims to use the right model for each task, she said. Hood said broader Copilot adoption could support demand for usage-based offerings such as Copilot Cowork. She described the combination of predictable user licensing and consumption-based tools as a way to create growth beyond a simple replacement of existing software budgets.