← 公司列表分析方法 v20260905

Microsoft · MSFT

数据截止 / 时滞:研究截止2026-09-09 UTC;财务实际截至2026-06-30(FY2026 Q4);09-02报告结构与指引口径更新已纳入。行情为2026-09-08收盘493.95美元,非实时。[13][17] 2026-09-09更新:已核验09-02的8-K及分部/指标重列,FY2027改为Agents and Infra、Devices and Consumer;Q1集团收入/资本开支指引未变,Azure新口径固定汇率增长44%–45%,不是原口径约45%的同口径下调。[12][13] 新取得FY2026 10-K补齐租赁本金及未开始义务;未在本次检查的SEC索引及IR材料中发现更晚季度实绩。[11][16]

云增长仍强,重组不能替代现金回报

完整判断与限制

FY2026收入331.839十亿美元、营业利润155.237十亿美元;Q4 Azure旧口径增长43%,按09-02新口径重列为42%,产品划转不是需求恶化。[1][13] 严格自由现金流66.987十亿美元仍下滑;扣融资租赁本金后现金63.886十亿美元,329.1十亿美元未开始租赁提示资本回收约束。业务重组和Astra上线不能替代每股现金兑现。[11][14]

报告信息 · 状态、日期与口径

行情价格:493.95 美元 · MSFT · 行情日期 2026-09-08 · 直接行情来源

单位与术语说明
PRICE MAP / 估值与技术参照

价格与估值参照

美元 · 每股 · 价格锚:2026-09-08(非实时)

假设情景作者经营与倍数情景,非一致预期;租赁付款、资本开支及现金转换可能令每股收益偏离股东现金。

模型口径与限制

经营驱动的未来一年标准化每股收益×作者市盈率情景;用已验证历史自由现金流收益率作现金质量校验,而非机械套当前GAAP盈利;历史锚为FY2026收入331.839十亿美元、营业利润155.237十亿美元与每股收益17.95/非GAAP17.28;作者FY2027情景使用收入增8%/15%/22%、营业利润率43%/46%/48%、税率20%、股数7.50/7.45/7.40十亿股,其他损益假设为零。保守情景低于公司双位数增长指引,代表指引失效而非公司预测;Yahoo实际提取页顶部行情标记8月13日,FY2027 每股收益均值19.70(35位分析师,18.93—20.70),FY2028 23.55(33位,20.93—26.00);其上年每股收益17.28显示接近公司排除OpenAI的口径,但完整供应商定义未核验。估计表无独立更新时间,列为滞后快照,仅交叉检验,不冒充9月8日一致预期;2026-09-09复核维持原经营情景与22/28/34倍;分部划转不改变集团盈利,新增租赁附注提高现金约束可见度,故不提高假设。滞后Yahoo共识仍仅历史对照,不作当前一致预期;估值范围来自经营与倍数双重假设;基准并非精确内在价值,未来租赁、股权投资收益及现金转换可能令每股收益与所有者现金流偏离;09-08价493.95,以FY2026 自由现金流/全年平均稀释股数估计收益率1.82%;扣融资租赁本金后1.74%。全年平均股数不是当日实际股数,这些不是严格市值收益率。估值情景不是保证目标价;技术观察高低不是保证支撑或压力。

按价格等比例定位;灰线仅为价格刻度,蓝色标记为所示日期收盘价;均不表示买卖信号。观察区间不是保证支撑或压力;点击标记查看原报告口径与来源。

PRICE RATING / 本报告新增分析 · 20260909

五档价格评级

持有$493.95
FY27盈利模型内 · 置信度:中低2026-09-08 收盘 · 美元/股 · 非实时

FY27盈利模型内:2026-09-08收盘493.95美元/股,高于买入上限448.64、不高于持有上限527.81,归“持有”。这只是基本面不变时的条件性价格映射,不是实际买卖指令。

强力买入0 < P ≤ 325.48条件性价格档位
买入325.48 < P ≤ 448.64条件性价格档位
持有448.64 < P ≤ 527.81报告价格所在档
卖出527.81 < P ≤ 642.85条件性价格档位
强力卖出P > 642.85条件性价格档位

低价档以前提不变为条件;保守情景不是损失地板,基本面恶化须停用原档并重估。

P 为正数股价(美元/股);边界归入左侧较低价格档。颜色对应文字评级,不代表涨跌预测;分币仅为计算显示精度,不是估值精度。

FY27作者经营情景,非当前一致预期;AI资本开支与租赁付款可能使EPS偏离股东现金。

为什么这样分档?查看计算、依据与失效条件

估值与判断依据

以FY26收入331.839十亿美元为起点,沿用FY27经营驱动EPS×22/28/34倍三情景,再加入AI资本回报和现金转换折让。

  • 估值锚来自收入、利润率、税率及股数完整情景,不以滞后Yahoo共识替代当前预测。 原报告依据 →
  • AI资本开支、未开始租赁与FCF下滑使EPS不能直接视为所有者现金流。 原报告依据 →

估值窗口:FY27全年经营盈利情景;不是一年内股价必达期限。

失效后先重估,不是越跌越买

  • 可比口径Azure增长、收入及公司展望共同恶化,或FY27营业利润率同比下降超过2个百分点,须重做增长/利润率/倍数的全档评级。
  • 连续两个季度可比FCF同比下降超过20%或全年转负,或租赁付款和AI利用率显示资本回报不足,须纳入完整现金约束后全档重评。

买入档仅在基本面及模型前提持续成立时适用;跌价若来自盈利、偿债或经营能力恶化,应暂停使用原区间。卖出档不是做空指令。

四个边界如何计算

  1. 强力买入档上限:325.48 = 361.64 × 0.9。FY27收入增8%、营业率43%、税率20%、7.50十亿股、22倍的下行情景361.64;新增作者折让10%(factor 0.90):下行情景已经同时压收入增速、利润率和倍数;再留一层AI资本回报与现金转换误差,而不假设订阅护城河能消除损失。 查看估值依据
    inputs.json/2/report/valuation/rows/0/3(id=003_Microsoft;盈利与口径见同报告valuation.basis及rows/0/1–2)
  2. 买入档上限:448.64 = 527.81 × 0.85。FY27收入增15%、营业率46%、税率20%、7.45十亿股、28倍的基准情景527.81;新增作者折让15%(factor 0.85):基准依赖Azure/企业订阅增长覆盖折旧和租赁成本,现金收益率偏低且维持性CapEx未分拆,要求买入档有明确基准折价。 查看估值依据
    inputs.json/2/report/valuation/rows/1/3(id=003_Microsoft;盈利与口径见同报告valuation.basis及rows/1/1–2)
  3. 持有档上限:527.81 = 527.81 × 1.0。同一FY27经营基准与28倍情景527.81;新增作者边界选择为不加溢价(factor 1.00,额外安全边际0%):基准28倍已含业务质量,不用滞后共识再提高持有上限;高于基准开始要求乐观假设,归卖出档。 查看估值依据
    inputs.json/2/report/valuation/rows/1/3(id=003_Microsoft;盈利与口径见同报告valuation.basis及rows/1/1–2)
  4. 卖出档上限:642.85 = 714.28 × 0.9。FY27收入增22%、营业率48%、税率20%、7.40十亿股、34倍的乐观情景714.28;新增作者折让10%(factor 0.90):乐观经营增长与34倍必须同时成立,AI回报和租赁承诺未充分验证;在乐观值前保留折让作为强力卖出分界,而非给予更高终值倍数。 查看估值依据
    inputs.json/2/report/valuation/rows/2/3(id=003_Microsoft;盈利与口径见同报告valuation.basis及rows/2/1–2)

门槛由原估值锚与本轮作者设定的安全边际/溢价因子得出;不是公司指引、分析师共识或回测优化结果。它不改写原报告的综合研究判断,也不承诺在固定日期到价。

完整模型限制

价格锚采用原报告分币输出,不能用已四舍五入EPS再乘倍数造成尾差。作者情景非公司EPS指引或当期一致预期;Yahoo快照滞后。未来股权投资损益、329.1十亿美元未开始租赁和资本投入可能使利润与现金长期分离;模型不是已完成维持性CapEx拆分的所有者收益DCF。本轮为新增作者价格筛选层,所有factor都是主观风险/安全边际设定,不是经验回测、概率、管理层指引或原研究Review结论;未按现价反推参数。原研究状态不变。五档须与可见模型限定一起阅读,仅在基本面前提未破坏时有效;触发失效条件须完整重评级,不能因下跌自动升级。不是交易指令、个人化建议、保证底部或损失上限。

Overview

五页看懂 · 结论、依据与边界

01 / 05 · 核心判断

云增长仍强,重组不能替代现金回报

  • 原有立场

    维持观察。企业云增长已有实绩,但自由现金流仍下滑;分部重组和Astra上线尚不能证明每股现金回报改善。

    依据与口径 ↗
  • 口径变化

    FY2026 Q4 Azure同比增速由旧口径43%重列为新口径42%,来自产品划转;不能把不同口径串起来认定需求恶化。

    依据与口径 ↗
Microsoft · 20260909研究观点 · 非投资建议
02 / 05 · 业务表现

利润增长,租赁调整后的现金仍下降

  • 年度实绩

    FY2026收入331.839十亿美元、营业利润155.237十亿美元;自由现金流66.987十亿美元,扣融资租赁本金后为63.886十亿美元。

    依据与口径 ↗
  • 长期承诺

    2026年6月30日尚未开始的租赁承诺329.1十亿美元,主要为数据中心;属多年义务,不是当年一次性到期的债务。

    依据与口径 ↗
Microsoft · 20260909研究观点 · 非投资建议
03 / 05 · 估值

维持原情景,不因新产品提高倍数

  • 报告假设

    沿用FY2027盈利与市盈率假设;缺少可靠的当前共识,不因新产品提高倍数。

    依据与口径 ↗
  • 重要限制

    同时检查自由现金流与扣融资租赁本金后的现金,不能只看会计利润。

    依据与口径 ↗
情景与收盘价对照
保守估值情景361.64美元
基准估值情景527.81美元
乐观估值情景714.28美元
收盘价格493.95美元

美元 · 每股 · 价格锚:2026-09-08(非实时)
灰色:本报告情景;蓝色:所示日期收盘价。条形从零起算,粗段表示区间;不是目标价或买卖信号。

Microsoft · 20260909研究观点 · 非投资建议
04 / 05 · 主要风险

高投入能否转成现金,比分类更重要

  • 经营传导

    AI付费或用量不及预期,会削弱收入增长,而折旧与租赁付款较难同步下降;盈利与估值倍数可能同时承压。

    依据与口径 ↗
  • 避免误读

    租赁从融资类改为经营类并不取消付款;基础模型替代担忧也不是微软已经流失客户或降价的事实证据。

    依据与口径 ↗
Microsoft · 20260909研究观点 · 非投资建议
05 / 05 · 后续观察

以新口径检查下一季增长与现金

  • 公司指引

    FY2027 Q1集团收入89.85–90.95十亿美元、资本开支超过50十亿美元未变;新口径Azure固定汇率同比增长指引44%–45%。

    依据与口径 ↗
  • 验证标准

    跟踪租赁调整后的现金回报与云毛利;连续两季自由现金流同比下降超过20%是本报告预警,不是公司预测。

    依据与口径 ↗
Microsoft · 20260909研究观点 · 非投资建议
1 / 5

五项决策摘要

基本面

分部变更不创造现金;租赁调整后现金仍下滑

依据与限制 · 展开阅读

2026-09-09更新:已核验09-02的8-K及分部/指标重列,FY2027改为Agents and Infra、Devices and Consumer;Q1集团收入/资本开支指引未变,Azure新口径固定汇率增长44%–45%,不是原口径约45%的同口径下调。[12][13] 新取得FY2026 10-K补齐租赁本金及未开始义务;未在本次检查的SEC索引及IR材料中发现更晚季度实绩。[11][16]

FY2026 10-K补充现金桥:经营租赁付款6.443十亿美元、融资租赁利息等经营现金流2.547十亿美元已在经营现金流中,不重复扣;另列融资租赁本金3.101十亿美元,故66.987−3.101=63.886十亿美元,较FY2025同口径69.328下降7.85%。融资租赁新增使用权资产24.608十亿美元不是当期现金流出。[11]

估值

财务质量优于现金收益率,不能只看GAAP 市盈率

依据与限制 · 展开阅读

09-08价493.95美元对应FY2026 GAAP 市盈率 27.52倍、仅排OpenAI影响的非GAAP 市盈率 28.59倍;严格自由现金流收益率近似1.82%,扣融资租赁本金后1.74%。[1][11][17]

本报告情景361.64/527.81/714.28美元维持;现金和竞争新增证据要求验证,不支持直接提高倍数。

技术面

低于20日、仍高于50/200日:短线动能转弱

依据与限制 · 展开阅读

2026-09-08收盘493.95美元;相对上一交易日09-04为-1.15%。日线样本251个交易日。低于20日均线495.10;高于50日均线446.59;高于200日均线431.05。均线是统计描述,不代表将来收益。[17]

20个交易日收盘变化-2.39%;末日成交量/此前20日均量0.82倍。不含股息再投资;量比不能证明机构买卖方向。[17]

筹码 / 持仓结构

虽有回购,股数减少仍有限

依据与限制 · 展开阅读

FY2026现金流表回购22.271十亿美元、股权激励费用 12.405十亿美元;全年加权稀释股数仅同比减少0.16%。回购现金不是净回购收益的同义词。[1]

机构13F、内部人Form 4、借券空头与期权仓位未核验,不作“主力吸筹”判断。

2026-09-09核查SEC索引见09-08 Form 4申报,但尚未逐项分拆归属/代扣税/交易计划,不能写成内部人净卖出信号。[16]

催化剂 / 近期大事

下一季以新Azure基数、完整租赁现金复核

依据与限制 · 展开阅读

09-02机械重列后,Q1集团收入89.85–90.95十亿美元、资本开支超过50十亿美元未变;新Azure固定汇率44%–45%、Microsoft 365商业云固定汇率约17%。均为指引。[13]

Astra在Foundry已可用,但新增收入与现金率未披露;下一份Q1实绩尚未取得。[14][16]

基本面

业务与竞争格局

通过Microsoft 365、Dynamics和LinkedIn收取企业订阅、软件与服务费用;Azure销售计算、存储及AI服务,Windows OEM、游戏和搜索广告构成个人计算业务。FY2026 Q4原报告结构三分部收入分别为37.847十亿美元、39.306十亿美元、12.854十亿美元,云基础设施与企业生产力是主要增量引擎。[1][6]

更多依据与口径(2项)

经济性来自企业工作流整合、持续订阅和规模化基础设施;但这是研究者对业务组合的判断,不等于永久定价权。云和AI面临激烈竞争及资本回收风险;协作产品还面对Slack等投诉者推动的解绑约束,套件捆绑不能无限强化优势。[1][7]

FY2027新结构:Agents and Infra整合Microsoft Cloud、生产力/服务器许可及咨询支持;Devices and Consumer包括Windows、XBOX和广告。GitHub云、其他开发云服务及Security Copilot迁入Microsoft 365云,Healthcare and Life Sciences云迁入Industry solutions;Azure和席位增长须用重列基数,旧分部历史不伪改为新分部。[12][13]

历史财务

期间收入营业利润自由现金流口径 / 备注
FY2023(截至6月30日)211.915十亿美元 [6]营业利润88.523十亿美元 [6]59.475十亿美元(经营现金流−现金购置固定资产(PP&E))[6]FY非自然年;自由现金流不扣并购,也未单列扣除融资租赁本金;历史分部按年报展示口径。[6]
FY2024(截至6月30日)245.122十亿美元 [6]营业利润109.433十亿美元 [6]74.071十亿美元(经营现金流−现金购置固定资产(PP&E))[6]FY非自然年;自由现金流不扣并购,也未单列扣除融资租赁本金;历史分部按年报展示口径。[6]
FY2025(截至6月30日)281.724十亿美元 [6]营业利润128.528十亿美元 [6]71.611十亿美元(经营现金流−现金购置固定资产(PP&E))[6]FY非自然年;自由现金流不扣并购,也未单列扣除融资租赁本金;历史分部按年报展示口径。[6]
FY2026(截至6月30日)331.839十亿美元 [1]营业利润155.237十亿美元 [1]66.987十亿美元(经营现金流−现金购置固定资产(PP&E))[1]FY非自然年;自由现金流不扣并购,也未单列扣除融资租赁本金;历史分部按年报展示口径。[1]

过去四季 + 下一季公司指引

期间收入收入同比GAAP 毛利率毛利率同比变化(百分点)GAAP每股收益调整后 每股收益数据性质
FY2026 Q1/自然年2025 Q3;截至2025-09-3077.673十亿美元 [4]18.43%(按原表重算)[4]GAAP 69.05%(毛利额÷收入)[4]-0.31个百分点(按上年同期重算)[4]3.72美元,稀释每股 [4]4.13美元,仅排除OpenAI投资影响;[4]事实
FY2026 Q2/自然年2025 Q4;截至2025-12-3181.273十亿美元 [3]16.72%(按原表重算)[3]GAAP 68.04%(毛利额÷收入)[3]-0.66个百分点(按上年同期重算)[3]5.16美元,稀释每股 [3]4.14美元,仅排除OpenAI投资影响;[3]事实
FY2026 Q3/自然年2026 Q1;截至2026-03-3182.886十亿美元 [2]18.30%(按原表重算)[2]GAAP 67.63%(毛利额÷收入)[2]-1.08个百分点(按上年同期重算)[2]4.27美元,稀释每股 [2]4.27美元,仅排除OpenAI投资影响;[2]事实
FY2026 Q4/自然年2026 Q2;截至2026-06-3090.007十亿美元 [1]17.75%(按原表重算)[1]GAAP 67.20%(毛利额÷收入)[1]-1.39个百分点(按上年同期重算)[1]4.81美元,稀释每股 [1]4.74美元,仅排除OpenAI投资影响;[1]事实
FY2027 Q1/自然年2026 Q3;截至2026-09-30(公司指引)集团89.85–90.95十亿美元不变;09-02新分部Agents and Infra75.15–75.75、Devices and Consumer14.7–15.2十亿美元。[13]公司指引16%—17% [5]公司未直接给总毛利率;收入和收入成本(COGS)指引分别89.85—90.95十亿美元与29.6—29.8十亿美元,不把独立范围误作配对利润率。[5]未直接给出;公司称营业利润率同比相对稳定,不是毛利率。[5]未发布GAAP每股收益区间;OpenAI投资影响不在其他损益指引内。[5]未发布非GAAP每股收益区间。[5]GUIDANCE

微软FY于6月30日结束:FY2026 Q1是2025年7—9月,FY2027 Q1是2026年7—9月;不可把财年季度等同自然年季度。[1][4][5]

更多依据与口径(5项)

四季度GAAP总毛利率均按毛利额÷收入计算,不是Microsoft Cloud毛利率;FY2026 Q4总毛利率67.20%,电话会Cloud口径约65%,不能混用。[1][5]

FY2026非GAAP每股收益17.28只排除OpenAI投资影响,并非剔除所有非经营项目:Q4仍有Anthropic投资收益3.2十亿美元;公司还说离散事项相较原指引带来每股0.27美元净利好,该0.27并非与非GAAP每股收益直接相减后的“标准化每股收益”。[1]

FY2027延长数据中心和办公楼预计使用年限影响折旧时点及融资/经营租赁分类。CY2026约175十亿美元 资本开支为调整分类后的自然年预期,不是FY2027全年资本开支;官方电话会未给出FY2027美元总额。[5]

FY2026 10-K补充现金桥:经营租赁付款6.443十亿美元、融资租赁利息等经营现金流2.547十亿美元已在经营现金流中,不重复扣;另列融资租赁本金3.101十亿美元,故66.987−3.101=63.886十亿美元,较FY2025同口径69.328下降7.85%。融资租赁新增使用权资产24.608十亿美元不是当期现金流出。[11] 公司称折旧年限变化对FY2027营业利润只有轻微利好,不夸大为大幅利润释放。[5]

09-02仅机械调整报告结构,不改变集团收入/成本/税率/资本开支展望;新分部Q1收入Agents and Infra75.15–75.75、Devices and Consumer14.7–15.2十亿美元。以下历史四季总收入/每股收益不受分部改组影响;Azure增长改用重列基数。[13]

经营质量与资本配置

2026-09-09更新:已核验09-02的8-K及分部/指标重列,FY2027改为Agents and Infra、Devices and Consumer;Q1集团收入/资本开支指引未变,Azure新口径固定汇率增长44%–45%,不是原口径约45%的同口径下调。[12][13] 新取得FY2026 10-K补齐租赁本金及未开始义务;未在本次检查的SEC索引及IR材料中发现更晚季度实绩。[11][16]

更多依据与口径(9项)

原报告结构增长桥:Q4生产力增长14%、Intelligent Cloud增长32%、个人计算下降4%;旧Azure及其他云服务增长43%。09-02重列Azure Q4增长42%、FY2026增长40%;新旧分母不同,不串联认定减速。Microsoft Cloud跨分部,不能与分部收入相加。[1][13]

商业剩余履约义务 678十亿美元、同比增84%,电话会称本季剩余履约义务环比增加全部来自前沿模型公司以外客户;这弱化单一客户叙事,但剩余履约义务跨多年、受合同期限及履约节奏影响,不能直接当下一年营收。Microsoft 365 Copilot超过3000万付费席位,席位并不披露独立利润。[1][5]

FY2026经营现金流182.935十亿美元,现金购置固定资产115.948十亿美元,自由现金流 66.987十亿美元;相比FY2025 自由现金流 71.611十亿美元下降6.46%。Q4经营现金流55.441十亿美元、现金购置固定资产(PP&E)35.802十亿美元,自由现金流19.639十亿美元,同比下降23.19%。利润增长不等于可分配现金增长。[1][6]

资产负债(06-30):现金及短期投资76.843十亿美元、借款40.294十亿美元,净现金36.549十亿美元仅是不含租赁口径。新核验经营租赁负债21.925、融资租赁负债66.594;若一并纳入,净负债约51.970十亿美元。此为补充压力口径,不与每股收益估值重复扣减。[1][11]

资本分配:全年现金流表回购22.271十亿美元、股权激励费用12.405十亿美元;年度稀释股数7.453十亿股对上年7.465十亿股仅减少0.16%。Q4含融资租赁资本开支约41十亿美元,而现金购置固定资产(PP&E)35.8十亿美元;把现金资本开支和含租赁资本开支串成一个增长序列会误读投资强度。[1][5]

FY2026 10-K补充现金桥:经营租赁付款6.443十亿美元、融资租赁利息等经营现金流2.547十亿美元已在经营现金流中,不重复扣;另列融资租赁本金3.101十亿美元,故66.987−3.101=63.886十亿美元,较FY2025同口径69.328下降7.85%。融资租赁新增使用权资产24.608十亿美元不是当期现金流出。[11]

06-30尚未开始租赁329.1十亿美元,主要数据中心,拟FY2027–FY2033启动,期限1–20年且部分附条件。已开始租赁FY2027未折现付款经营6.082、融资7.121十亿美元;长期承诺不是即期借款,也不是当年一次性现金到期,不能忽略未来必须承担的付款义务。[11]

09-03官方公告Astra在Foundry可用,说明微软同时是基础模型分销/算力承载者及应用提供者。研究判断:代理用量可能扩大Azure需求,也可能改变按席位收费;产品可用不等于新增收入、利润或市场份额已兑现。[14]

09-08 Reuters将软件板块弱势与基础模型替代担忧联系;这是市场叙事而非微软已出现客户流失或定价下降的证明。微软既承载模型又销售应用,需分别验证基础设施收益与席位经济性。[14][15]

估值

估值方法

经营驱动的未来一年标准化每股收益×作者市盈率情景;用已验证历史自由现金流收益率作现金质量校验,而非机械套当前GAAP盈利。

更多依据与口径(4项)

历史锚为FY2026收入331.839十亿美元、营业利润155.237十亿美元与每股收益17.95/非GAAP17.28。[1]

作者FY2027情景使用收入增8%/15%/22%、营业利润率43%/46%/48%、税率20%、股数7.50/7.45/7.40十亿股,其他损益假设为零。保守情景低于公司双位数增长指引,代表指引失效而非公司预测。[5]

Yahoo实际提取页顶部行情标记8月13日,FY2027 每股收益均值19.70(35位分析师,18.93—20.70),FY2028 23.55(33位,20.93—26.00);其上年每股收益17.28显示接近公司排除OpenAI的口径,但完整供应商定义未核验。估计表无独立更新时间,列为滞后快照,仅交叉检验,不冒充9月8日一致预期。[9]

2026-09-09复核维持原经营情景与22/28/34倍;分部划转不改变集团盈利,新增租赁附注提高现金约束可见度,故不提高假设。滞后Yahoo共识仍仅历史对照,不作当前一致预期。[11][13]

情景盈利/现金流输入倍数/折现假设价值输出
保守/下行本报告情景:收入358.39十亿美元;增长8%、营业利润率43%;Azure/企业支出降速,折旧与租赁压利润;测算每股收益 16.44美元市盈率假设(本报告设定) 22倍;税率20%、稀释股数7.50十亿股361.64美元/股;较09-08价-26.79%(本报告测算情景,不是目标价)
基准本报告情景:收入381.61十亿美元;增长15%、营业利润率46%;企业订阅与Azure维持扩张,效率覆盖多数新增成本;测算每股收益 18.85美元市盈率假设(本报告设定) 28倍;税率20%、稀释股数7.45十亿股527.81美元/股;较09-08价+6.85%(本报告测算情景,不是目标价)
乐观本报告情景:收入404.84十亿美元;增长22%、营业利润率48%;Copilot付费和用量增长强于基础设施成本;测算每股收益 21.01美元市盈率假设(本报告设定) 34倍;税率20%、稀释股数7.40十亿股714.28美元/股;较09-08价+44.60%(本报告测算情景,不是目标价)

估值范围来自经营与倍数双重假设;基准并非精确内在价值,未来租赁、股权投资收益及现金转换可能令每股收益与所有者现金流偏离。

09-08价493.95,以FY2026 自由现金流/全年平均稀释股数估计收益率1.82%;扣融资租赁本金后1.74%。全年平均股数不是当日实际股数,这些不是严格市值收益率。[1][11][17]

当前价格需要怎样的盈利

09-08 493.95美元÷FY2026 GAAP17.95=27.52倍;÷非GAAP17.28=28.59倍。相对历史Yahoo FY2027 每股收益19.70,机械比值25.07倍,但该估计取自滞后快照,不是当前前瞻 市盈率或新共识。[1][9][17]

技术面

2026-09-08收盘493.95美元;相对上一交易日09-04为-1.15%。日线样本251个交易日。低于20日均线495.10;高于50日均线446.59;高于200日均线431.05。均线是统计描述,不代表将来收益。[17]

更多依据与口径(5项)

最近20日观察区间477.15—517.78美元;60日区间349.20—517.78美元。窗口高低不是估值底线、保证支撑或交易建议。[17]

20个交易日收盘变化-2.39%;末日成交量/此前20日均量0.82倍。不含股息再投资;量比不能证明机构买卖方向。[17]

尚缺数据:完整公司行动交叉核验、逐笔成交量加权均价(VWAP)、相对行业强弱、期权定位与机构成本;不从有限价格序列编造这些信号。

2026-09-09更新:使用本批09-08完整收盘快照并从原始开高低收量(OHLCV)复算;不是盘中即时价,原始证据不复用09-04文件。[17]

行情价格:493.95 美元 · MSFT · 行情日期 2026-09-08 · 直接行情来源

20日简单移动平均线50日简单移动平均线200日简单移动平均线20日低 / 高60日低 / 高20日回报(%)20日量比
495.104446.5918431.0473477.15 / 517.78349.2 / 517.78-2.3930.8202
已提供收盘序列;非估值目标2025-09-09: 498.412025-09-10: 500.372025-09-11: 501.012025-09-12: 509.92025-09-15: 515.362025-09-16: 509.042025-09-17: 510.022025-09-18: 508.452025-09-19: 517.932025-09-22: 514.452025-09-23: 509.232025-09-24: 510.152025-09-25: 507.032025-09-26: 511.462025-09-29: 514.62025-09-30: 517.952025-10-01: 519.712025-10-02: 515.742025-10-03: 517.352025-10-06: 528.572025-10-07: 523.982025-10-08: 524.852025-10-09: 522.42025-10-10: 510.962025-10-13: 514.052025-10-14: 513.572025-10-15: 513.432025-10-16: 511.612025-10-17: 513.582025-10-20: 516.792025-10-21: 517.662025-10-22: 520.542025-10-23: 520.562025-10-24: 523.612025-10-27: 531.522025-10-28: 542.072025-10-29: 541.552025-10-30: 525.762025-10-31: 517.812025-11-03: 517.032025-11-04: 514.332025-11-05: 507.162025-11-06: 497.12025-11-07: 496.822025-11-10: 506.02025-11-11: 508.682025-11-12: 511.142025-11-13: 503.292025-11-14: 510.182025-11-17: 507.492025-11-18: 493.792025-11-19: 487.122025-11-20: 478.432025-11-21: 472.122025-11-24: 474.02025-11-25: 476.992025-11-26: 485.52025-11-28: 492.012025-12-01: 486.742025-12-02: 490.02025-12-03: 477.732025-12-04: 480.842025-12-05: 483.162025-12-08: 491.022025-12-09: 492.022025-12-10: 478.562025-12-11: 483.472025-12-12: 478.532025-12-15: 474.822025-12-16: 476.392025-12-17: 476.122025-12-18: 483.982025-12-19: 485.922025-12-22: 484.922025-12-23: 486.852025-12-24: 488.022025-12-26: 487.712025-12-29: 487.12025-12-30: 487.482025-12-31: 483.622026-01-02: 472.942026-01-05: 472.852026-01-06: 478.512026-01-07: 483.472026-01-08: 478.112026-01-09: 479.282026-01-12: 477.182026-01-13: 470.672026-01-14: 459.382026-01-15: 456.662026-01-16: 459.862026-01-20: 454.522026-01-21: 444.112026-01-22: 451.142026-01-23: 465.952026-01-26: 470.282026-01-27: 480.582026-01-28: 481.632026-01-29: 433.52026-01-30: 430.292026-02-02: 423.372026-02-03: 411.212026-02-04: 414.192026-02-05: 393.672026-02-06: 401.142026-02-09: 413.62026-02-10: 413.272026-02-11: 404.372026-02-12: 401.842026-02-13: 401.322026-02-17: 396.862026-02-18: 399.62026-02-19: 398.462026-02-20: 397.232026-02-23: 384.472026-02-24: 389.02026-02-25: 400.62026-02-26: 401.722026-02-27: 392.742026-03-02: 398.552026-03-03: 403.932026-03-04: 405.22026-03-05: 410.682026-03-06: 408.962026-03-09: 409.412026-03-10: 405.762026-03-11: 404.882026-03-12: 401.862026-03-13: 395.552026-03-16: 399.952026-03-17: 399.412026-03-18: 391.792026-03-19: 389.022026-03-20: 381.872026-03-23: 383.02026-03-24: 372.742026-03-25: 371.042026-03-26: 365.972026-03-27: 356.772026-03-30: 358.962026-03-31: 370.172026-04-01: 369.372026-04-02: 373.462026-04-06: 372.882026-04-07: 372.292026-04-08: 374.332026-04-09: 373.072026-04-10: 370.872026-04-13: 384.372026-04-14: 393.112026-04-15: 411.222026-04-16: 420.262026-04-17: 422.792026-04-20: 418.072026-04-21: 424.162026-04-22: 432.922026-04-23: 415.752026-04-24: 424.622026-04-27: 424.822026-04-28: 429.252026-04-29: 424.462026-04-30: 407.782026-05-01: 414.442026-05-04: 413.622026-05-05: 411.382026-05-06: 413.962026-05-07: 420.772026-05-08: 415.122026-05-11: 412.662026-05-12: 407.772026-05-13: 405.212026-05-14: 409.432026-05-15: 421.922026-05-18: 423.542026-05-19: 417.422026-05-20: 421.062026-05-21: 419.092026-05-22: 418.572026-05-26: 416.032026-05-27: 412.672026-05-28: 426.992026-05-29: 450.242026-06-01: 460.522026-06-02: 441.312026-06-03: 427.342026-06-04: 428.052026-06-05: 416.672026-06-08: 411.742026-06-09: 403.412026-06-10: 397.362026-06-11: 390.342026-06-12: 390.742026-06-15: 399.762026-06-16: 393.832026-06-17: 378.912026-06-18: 379.42026-06-22: 367.342026-06-23: 373.942026-06-24: 365.462026-06-25: 352.832026-06-26: 372.972026-06-29: 368.572026-06-30: 373.022026-07-01: 384.282026-07-02: 390.492026-07-06: 386.742026-07-07: 388.842026-07-08: 383.342026-07-09: 384.362026-07-10: 385.12026-07-13: 390.992026-07-14: 384.932026-07-15: 395.632026-07-16: 401.12026-07-17: 393.822026-07-20: 402.292026-07-21: 397.752026-07-22: 390.342026-07-23: 381.582026-07-24: 381.72026-07-27: 389.12026-07-28: 393.352026-07-29: 390.542026-07-30: 451.12026-07-31: 464.722026-08-03: 487.652026-08-04: 492.812026-08-05: 487.462026-08-06: 499.862026-08-07: 499.992026-08-10: 506.062026-08-11: 503.812026-08-12: 492.432026-08-13: 496.882026-08-14: 495.42026-08-17: 480.352026-08-18: 481.632026-08-19: 484.312026-08-20: 481.152026-08-21: 483.242026-08-24: 487.312026-08-25: 491.712026-08-26: 496.372026-08-27: 505.062026-08-28: 513.532026-08-31: 507.292026-09-01: 501.022026-09-02: 496.822026-09-03: 510.122026-09-04: 499.72026-09-08: 493.952025-09-092026-09-08

计算口径:Yahoo 日线原始 close;均线为简单均线;未按股息再投资调整;窗口高低为观察区间,不是内在价值或保证有效支撑。量比=末日成交量/此前20个交易日均量。

更多依据与口径(2项)

样本交易日:251

行情证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260909/market/MSFT-raw.json

筹码 / 持仓结构

FY2026股票回购现金22.271十亿美元、股权激励费用(SBC)12.405十亿美元、稀释均股7.453十亿股;稀释均股是全年平均不是9月8日流通股数。回购与股权激励费用(SBC)不能简单相减来宣称净增厚。[1]

MISSING:未取得并校验最新机构13F清单、Form 4交易、空头占比/回补天数及期权偏斜;13F是季末滞后披露,不代表当前持仓,亦不从股价反推机构行为。

催化剂 / 近期大事

时间 / 确认状态事件事件性质观察 / 论点影响
2026-07-29FY2026 Q4与全年业绩已发布已发生原口径Azure增长43%(09-02重列后42%)、剩余履约义务(RPO)678十亿美元和自由现金流(FCF)19.639十亿美元是否在下一季度持续形成收入与现金。[1][5][13]
下一财季截至2026-09-30;发布日期未核验FY2027 Q1业绩及指引兑现检查公司指引09-02重列:集团收入89.85–90.95十亿美元未变,新Azure固定汇率44%–45%;资本开支(CapEx)超过50十亿美元,核对现金/租赁口径。[13]
自FY2027开始(2026-07-01)资产预计使用年限与租赁分类调整公司指引寿命15延至25年、更多未来数据中心租赁转经营租赁;追踪折旧、经营租赁支付与现金资本开支(CapEx)总负担。[5]
2025-09-12欧委会接受承诺;持续实施Teams解绑承诺执行已发生不含Teams套件折价、长期客户切换及互操作性要求是否影响企业每用户平均收入(ARPU)与留存。[7]
2026-09-02FY2027分部及指标重列已披露(机械调整)新旧分部/指标不可混接,集团指引未改;并非经营增速被上调。[12][13]
2026-09-03Astra在Microsoft Foundry可用已公告追踪推理用量、单位现金回报及应用替代,而非将产品发布当收入兑现。[14]

下行情景详解

已有基准

FY2026收入331.839十亿美元、营业利润155.237十亿美元;云毛利受AI基础设施和业务组合影响,而自由现金流(FCF)66.987十亿美元已同比下滑。[1][5]

可观察触发条件:区分公司指引与研究预警

作者预警:FY2027 Q1收入低于89.85十亿美元,或新口径Azure固定汇率低于40%(新公司指引44%–45%)。旧口径约45%不能作同口径变化比较。[13]

更多依据与口径(3项)

作者预警:连续两个季度自由现金流(FCF)同比下降超过20%,或全年自由现金流(FCF)转负;公司当前预期FY2027仍为正。[5]

作者预警:FY2027营业利润率同比下滑超过2个百分点;公司预期全年下降不足1个百分点。不要把租赁分类变化带来的资本开支(CapEx)下降误判为经营改善。[5]

Teams解绑削弱每用户平均收入(ARPU)、PC库存调整扩散、或大客户履约延迟,将削弱基准假设;法律承诺与PC需求风险已在官方材料披露。[5][7]

经营 → 盈利 / 现金 → 估值传导

Azure/Copilot利用率或付费转化不及预期 → 云收入增速回落 → 高折旧和租赁形成营业利润率压力 → 自由现金流(FCF)与每股收益(EPS)同时走弱。[1][5]

租赁从融资转经营并不消除付款义务;现金收益率偏低时,市场可同时压低增长预期与市盈率(P/E),构成业绩和估值双击。[5]

假设敏感性:不是价格底部

作者机械下行:FY2026收入331.839×1.08、营业率43%、税率20%、股数7.50十亿股、其他损益0,每股收益(EPS)16.44,22倍得361.64美元;较基准527.81低31.48%,较09-08价低26.79%。租赁承诺/硬件利用率同时恶化可更差,非价格底部。[1][11][17]

下次披露如何确认 / 推翻

下一FY2027 Q1核对新结构Azure/M365收入、Cloud毛利、现金购置固定资产(PP&E)、融资租赁本金/新增额及经营租赁支付;对照FY2026租赁本金调整现金63.886十亿美元及329.1十亿美元未开始租赁。只在可比现金回报改善时提高质量判断。[11][13]

论点监控

监控指标升级条件失效信号复核频率直接来源
Azure增长与收入兑现新口径Azure固定汇率增长达到44%–45%且集团收入不低于指引中枢作者阈值:低于40%且集团收入跌破89.85十亿美元每季[13]
租赁调整后现金转化自由现金流(FCF)增长恢复且租赁总现金负担未被重分类掩盖作者阈值:连续两季自由现金流(FCF)同比低于−20%或全年转负每季及年报[1][5]
营业利润率FY2027下降不足1个百分点并有稳定Cloud毛利作者阈值:全年下降超过2个百分点每季[5]
每股回报与套件每用户平均收入(ARPU)股权激励费用(SBC)受控、股数下降且解绑后企业订阅仍稳健股数明显增加同时企业云增速低于预期每季[1][7]

投资框架判断

框架判断,不代表投资大师本人观点。

更多依据与口径(4项)

巴菲特框架(框架判断,非本人观点):企业续订与云合同支持业务可理解性,反证是自由现金流(FCF)下降和资本密集度上升;安全边际不能只靠品牌,暂为Pass/观察。[1][5]

芒格框架:逆向失败路径是将AI需求、剩余履约义务(RPO)和会计利润误当现金收益;租赁重分类、折旧年限和投资收益须拆开。Teams约束说明规模优势也带来监管成本。[1][5][7]

段永平框架:生意有企业工作流价值,人和激励的完整评价证据不足,价格需由未来现金回收支撑;不因Azure增速而跳过资本成本。三框架共同要求先验证投资回报,再谈更高倍数。[1][5]

2026-09-09交叉复核:巴菲特框架以租赁本金后现金63.886十亿美元而非分部重命名衡量所有者回报;芒格框架警惕模型平台与应用竞争同时扩大投资;段永平框架维持Pass,不因新产品和反弹改变现金门槛。[11][13][14]

缺失数据与影响

未取得截至9月9日带独立时间戳、完整GAAP调整定义的一致预期;Yahoo为显示8月13日行情的滞后快照。[9]

更多依据与口径(4项)

未核验最新13F、Form 4、借券空头、期权仓位及逐项同业可比估值。

FY2027 Q1业绩发布日期未核验;Google/FTC等其他监管案件进展未完整覆盖,Teams来源只证明对应承诺。

行情已更新至2026-09-08完整交易日;不具备09-09盘中价格。机构成本、借券、期权隐波/偏斜与13F集中度仍未全量核验。[17]

已取得FY2026 10-K本金/付款表;仍缺维持性与增长性资本开支(CapEx)拆分、各AI项目资本回报,以及09-02重列演示文稿中仅以图片展示的完整分部历史金额表,故不填造新结构历史收入。[11][13]

紧凑证据索引
[1] Microsoft FY26 Q4业绩

发布日期:2026-07-29

证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/003_Microsoft/source_01.txt

Revenue was $90.0 billion and increased 18% (up 17% in constant currency) · Operating income was $40.6 billion and increased 18% · Net income was $35.8 billion and increased 31% on a GAAP basis, and was $35.3 billion and increased 22% on a non-GAAP basis · Diluted earnings per share was $4.81 and increased 32% on a GAAP basis, and was $4.74 and increased 23% on a non-GAAP basis · Non-GAAP results exclude the impact from investments in OpenAI, explained in the Non-GAAP Definition section below Several discrete items impacted our financial results in the quarter when compared to our forward-looking guidance provided on April 29, 2026, resu
[2] Microsoft FY26 Q3业绩

发布日期:2026-04-29

证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/003_Microsoft/source_02.txt

Revenue was $82.9 billion and increased 18% (up 15% in constant currency) · Operating income was $38.4 billion and increased 20% (up 16% in constant currency) · Net income was $31.8 billion and increased 23% on a GAAP basis, and increased 20% (up 18% in constant currency) on a non-GAAP basis · Diluted earnings per share was $4.27 and increased 23% on a GAAP basis, and increased 21% (up 18% in constant currency) on a non-GAAP basis · Non-GAAP results exclude the impact from investments in OpenAI, explained in the Non-GAAP Definition section below “We are focused on delivering cloud and AI infrastructure and solutions that empower every busines
[3] Microsoft FY26 Q2业绩

发布日期:2026-01-28

证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/003_Microsoft/source_03.txt

Diluted earnings per share on a GAAP basis was $5.16 and increased 60%, and on a non-GAAP basis was $4.14 and increased 24% (up 21% in constant currency) · Non-GAAP results exclude the impact from investments in OpenAI, explained in the Non-GAAP Definition section below “We are only at the beginning phases of AI diffusion and already Microsoft has built an AI business that is larger than some of our biggest franchises," said Satya Nadella, chairman and chief executive officer of Microsoft. “We are pushing the frontier across our entire AI stack to drive new value for our customers and partners.” “Microsoft Cloud revenue crossed $50 billion
[4] Microsoft FY26 Q1业绩

发布日期:2025-10-29

证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/003_Microsoft/source_04.txt

Revenue was $77.7 billion and increased 18% (up 17% in constant currency) · Operating income was $38.0 billion and increased 24% (up 22% in constant currency) · Net income, on a GAAP basis, was $27.7 billion and increased 12%, and on a non-GAAP basis was $30.8 billion and increased 22% (up 21% in constant currency) · Diluted earnings per share, on a GAAP basis, was $3.72 and increased 13%, and on a non-GAAP basis was $4.13 and increased 23% (up 21% in constant currency) · Non-GAAP results exclude the impact from investments in OpenAI, explained in the Non-GAAP Definition section below “Our planet-scale cloud and AI factory, together with Copi
[5] Microsoft FY26 Q4电话会与FY27指引

发布日期:2026-07-29

证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/003_Microsoft/source_05.txt

Therefore, at the total company level, revenue should be between $89.85 and $90.95 billion or growth of 16% to 17% with accelerating commercial growth partially offset by the impact from the PC market dynamics noted earlier. We expect COGS of $29.6 to $29.8 billion, or growth of 23% to 24%. And operating expense of $16.8 to $16.9 billion or growth of 7% to 8% driven by continued investment in R&D compute capacity and talent. Operating margins should be relatively flat year-over-year. Excluding any impact from our investments in OpenAI, other income and expense is expected to be roughly negative $100 million as interest income will be more tha
[6] Microsoft FY2025年报

发布日期:日期未确认

证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/003_Microsoft/source_06.txt

Total revenue 281,724 245,122 211,915 Cost of revenue: Product 13,501 15,272 17,804 Service and other 74,330 58,842 48,059 Total cost of revenue 87,831 74,114 65,863 Gross margin 193,893 171,008 146,052 Research and development 32,488 29,510 27,195 Sales and marketing 25,654 24,456 22,759 General and administrative 7,223 7,609 7,575 Operating income 128,528 109,433 88,523 Other income (expense), net (4,901) (1,646) 788 Income before income taxes 123,627 107,787 89,311 Provision for income taxes 21,795 19,651 16,950 Net income $ 101,832 $ 88,136 $ 72,361 Earnings per share: Basic $ 13.70 $ 11.86 $ 9.72 Diluted $ 13.64 $ 11.80 $ 9.68 Weighted a
[7] 欧委会接受Microsoft Teams承诺

发布日期:2025-09-12

证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/003_Microsoft/source_07.txt

The European Commission has accepted commitments from Microsoft to address EU competition concerns relating to its popular team collaboration platform Teams. These commitments will henceforth be legally binding under EU antitrust rules. The commitments address the Commission's concerns related to the tying of Microsoft Teams to the company's popular productivity applications Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Outlook, included in its Office 365 and Microsoft 365 suites for business customers. Under the commitments, Microsoft will (i) make available versions of these suites without Teams and at a reduced price; (ii) allow customers with long-term lice
[9] Yahoo MSFT分析师估计快照

发布日期:日期未确认

证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260908/003_Microsoft/source_10.txt

| Avg. Estimate | 4.71 | 4.82 | 19.7 | 23.55 | | Low Estimate | 4.43 | 4.66 | 18.93 | 20.93 | | High Estimate | 4.83 | 5.02 | 20.7 | 26 | | Year Ago EPS | 4.13 | 4.14 | 17.28 | 19.7 | ### Earnings History | Currency in USD | 9/30/2025 | 12/31/2025 | 3/31/2026 | 6/30/2026 | |---|---|---|---|---| | EPS Est. | 3.66 | 3.92 | 4.07 | 4.24 | | EPS Actual | 4.13 | 4.14 | 4.27 | 4.74 | | Difference | 0.47 | 0.22 | 0.2 | 0.5 | | Surprise % | 12.73% | 5.69% | 4.90% | 11.81% | ### EPS Trend | Currency in USD | Current Qtr. (Sep 2026) | Next Qtr. (Dec 2026) | Current Year (2027) | Next Year (2028) | |---|---|---|---|---| | Current Estimate | 4.71 | 4.
[11] Microsoft FY2026 10-K:租赁现金流及长期义务

发布日期:2026-07-29

证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260909/evidence/003_Microsoft/latest_10k.txt

Supplemental cash flow information related to leases was as follows: (In millions) Year Ended June 30, 2026 2025 2024 Cash paid for amounts included in the measurement of lease liabilities: Operating cash flows from operating leases $ 6,443 $ 4,931 $ 3,550 Operating cash flows from finance leases 2,547 1,372 734 Financing cash flows from finance leases 3,101 2,283 1,286 Right-of-use assets obtained in exchange for lease obligations: Operating leases 4,555 7,826 6,703 Finance leases 24,608 20,511 11,633 Supplemental balance sheet information related to leases was as follows: (In millions, except lease term and discount rate) June 30, 2026 2025 Operating Leases Operating lease right-of-use assets $ 24,177 $ 24,823 Other current liabilities $ 5,393 $ 5,424 Operating lease liabilities 16,532 17,437 Total operating lease liabilities $ 21,925 $ 22,861 Finance Leases Property and equipment, at cost $ 82,712 $ 53,876 Accumulated depreciation ( 15,431 ) ( 9,861 ) Property and equipment, net $ 67,281 $ 44,015 Other current liabilities $ 4,290 $ 3,172 Other long-term liabilities 62,304 43,000 Total finance lease liabilities $ 66,594 $ 46,172 Weighted Average Remaining Lease Term Operating leases 6 years 6 years Finance leases 13 years 13 years Weighted Average Discount Rate Operating leases 3.7 % 3.5 % Finance leases 4.5 % 4.2 % The following table outlines maturities of our lease liabilities as of June 30, 2026: (In millions) Year Ending June 30, Operating Leases Finance Leases 2027 $ 6,082 $ 7,121 2028 4,334 7,294 2029 3,146 6,668 2030 2,612 6,570 2031 2,316 6,543 Thereafter 6,216 55,490 Total lease payments 24,706 89,686 Less imputed interest ( 2,781 ) ( 23,092 ) Total $ 21,925 $
[12] Microsoft 9月2日8-K:FY27报告分部变更

发布日期:2026-09-02

证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260909/evidence/003_Microsoft/recent_8k.txt

On September 2, 2026, Microsoft Corporation (the “Company”) posted presentation materials to its Investor Relations website titled “FY27 Segments and Investor Metrics” announcing a change in reportable segments and investor metrics. Beginning in fiscal year 2027, the Company will manage its operations under this updated reporting structure and report its financial performance based on two reportable segments: (1) Agents and Infra and (2) Devices and Consumer. A copy of the presentation materials is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The exhibit furnished on this report under Regulation FD provides a description of our updated reporting structure and presents summary financial information and historical data on a basis consistent with the updated reporting structure. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, includin
[13] Microsoft FY27分部、指标重列及机械调整后的Q1指引

发布日期:2026-09-02

证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260909/evidence/003_Microsoft/segments_exhibit.txt

FY27 Q1 Outlook We will report our FY27 Q1 results in the structure discussed on the prior slides. Therefore, we have provided mechanical adjustments only to our outlook as provided on July 29, 2026, for the changes discussed in this presentation. As provided on July 29, 2026 Foreign currency impact Decrease to total revenue growth by less than 1 point, with roughly 1 point in Productivity and Business Processes, less than 1 point in Intelligent Cloud, and no meaningful impact in More Personal Computing No meaningful impact to COGS or operating expense growth Total Company Revenue of $89.85 to $90.95 billion Productivity and Business Processes Revenue of $36.7 to $37.0 billion Intelligent Cloud Revenue of $40.95 to $41.25 billion More Personal Computing Revenue of $12.2 to $12.7 billion Cost of revenue COGS of $29.6 to $29.8 billion Operating expenses Expenses of $16.8 to $16.9 billion Other income and expense Expected to be roughly $(100) million excluding any impact from our investments in OpenAI Operating margin Expected to remain relatively flat year-over-year Effective tax rate Approximately 20% Capital expenditures Expected to be over $50 billion including the impact of the useful life update Adjusted Outlook Foreign currency impact Decrease to total revenue growth by less than 1 point, with roughly 1 point in Agents and Infra, and no meaningful impact in Devices and Consumer No meaningful impact to COGS or operating expense growth Total Company No change to outlook Agents and Infra Revenue of $75.15 to $75.75 billion Devices and Consumer Revenue of $14.7 to $15.2 billion Cost of revenue No change to outlook Operating expenses No change to outlook Other income and expense No change to outlook Operating margin No change to outlook Effective tax rate No change to outlook Capital expenditures No change to outlook ![Slide 21](g291965ex99_1s21g1.jpg) FY27 Q1 Outlook Detail As provided July 29, 2026 Commercial Business Commercial bookings Healthy growth on a growing expiry base when adjusted for OpenAI contracts in the prior year Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage Relatively stable quarter-over-quarter Productivity and Business Processes Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud revenue Growth of approximately 15% in constant currency Growth of approximately 16% in constant currency when adjusting for prior-year in-period revenue recognition Microsoft 365 Commercial products revenue Growth in mid-single digits Microsoft 365 Consumer cloud revenue Growth in the mid-teens LinkedIn revenue Growth in high-single digits Dynamics 365 revenue Growth in low-teens Intelligent Cloud Azure and other cloud services revenue Growth of approximately 45% in constant curr
[14] Microsoft Foundry上线GPT-6 Astra(产品公告,非收入指引)

发布日期:2026-09-03

证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260909/evidence/003_Microsoft/astra_full.txt

The next era of enterprise AI will not be defined by chat experiences. It will be defined by how well a model can work for and with you. GPT-6 Astra , OpenAI’s newest frontier model, is now generally available for all customers in Microsoft Foundry . It is designed to help organizations make decisions for complex work and execute across the applications and systems where your business operates. We are investing to make it easier for customers to use advanced technology like Astra. AI initiatives often slow down on identity, networking, governance, data handling, evaluation, and compliance. Microsoft Foundry brings these fundamentals together in Azure, helping teams move from experimentation to production with speed and trust. Turn open-ended goals into action Astra is built to take an open
[15] Reuters经Kitco转载:软件竞争担忧与9月8日市场

发布日期:2026-09-08

证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260909/evidence/003_Microsoft/reuters_kitco_excerpt.txt

Salesforce (CRM.N), and Intuit (INTU.O), ‌fell about 4%, while ServiceNow (NOW.N), lost 5%. OpenAI's launch last week of its newest model, GPT-6 Astra, reignited speculation that AI could compete with services now offered by specialized software companies. The S&P 500 software and services index (.SPLRCIS), fell 1.4%, down for a second straight day. "Astra has kind of reignited the software disruption fears and it's resumed that old ​trend that we got used to for a while, where semiconductor stocks and data center capex beneficiaries do well, while software ​stocks do poorly," said Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio man
[16] SEC submissions索引:本次检查范围与最新披露时点

发布日期:2026-09-09(检索日,非每项申报日)

证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260909/evidence/003_Microsoft/direct_submissions.txt

"filings": { "recent": { "accessionNumber": [ "0000789019-26-000186", "0000789019-26-000185", "0000789019-26-000184", "0000789019-26-000183", "0000789019-26-000182", "0000789019-26-000181", "0000789019-26-000180", "0000789019-26-000179", "0000789019-26-000178", "0000789019-26-000177", "0000789019-26-000176", "0000789019-26-000175", "0000789019-26-000161", "0001193125-26-380280", "0000789019-26-000159", "0000789019-26-000158", "0000789019-26-000157",
[17] MSFT Yahoo原始日线:2026-09-08完整交易日(本批原始响应)

发布日期:2026-09-08

证据文件:/mnt/q/private/stock_site/data/batches/20260909/market/MSFT-raw.json

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